It looks like the much-anticipated El Nino is currently reaching the surface in the eastern Pacific.
If we take a look at sea surface temperature anomalies, now diagnosed on a cross-section along the equator from the surface to 500 meters down, it is evident that this Kelvin Wave-produced warm water is quickly upwelling to the surface. We see anomalies as high as 6 degrees C above normal about fifty meters below the surface, as is seen on the bottom panel in the top-right corner. As this body of warm water continues to push to the surface, we will likely see gradual weakening of these anomalies, but they should still be strong enough to propel us into our first El Nino event in multiple years.
|Mean water temperatures along the equator from the surface to 500 meters down (top),|
and anomalies for the same cross-section region (bottom).