Potential Snowstorm GL/OV Dec. 15

This is a bulletin for a potential snowstorm for the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for December 15-16th.

Right now, the GFS is indicating a storm driving in the Tennessee/Kentucky area, similar to one of the tracks printed out by the models in recent history.

This is likely the result of the jet stream diving south, giving the storms opportunities to beat up areas such as Springfield, IL or St. Louis, MO.

This is combined with the NWS which indicates a 'chance of snow'. I have come to learn that this usually indicates some form of snowstorm

MW/GL Snowstorm 12/10 5:07pm

Current thinking is that confidence remains moderately low. This is due to varying model runs and the SREF model members shifting southward as the day has gone on.

If the models shift at least a bit farther south, it means more and more snow for the Chicago Madison areas.

GFS E-WALL 72 hour Precip.

Areas of Dark blue and green indicate heavier amounts.

Notice

I realize that the STORMTRACKER page is offline. I am reconstructing it with new data.

December 12th GL storm

CMC- The CMC model is indicating a track that would be favorable for heavy snow from Chicago to Madison, WI or Rhinelander, WI. Thickness fine.

NOGAPS- The NOGAPS also indicates a favorable track for this event.

NAM- The NAM shows the track up in Wisconsin, favoring snow for the N. Wisconsin areas.

GFS- The GFS favors a track slicing through Chicago, but with thickness allowing heavy snow.

WRF- The WRF likes the storm to go up into Wisconsin as well, with rain into Chicago.

CPC- The CPC indicates heavy snow on Dec. 12 for the Lower GL.

NWS- NWS indicates several inches.

Accuweather- Indicating 2-6 inches.

GFS Ensemble 1- The ensemble indicates possibility of heavy precip in Lower GL, likely heavy precip in Canada by the Eastern GL.

GFS Ensemble 2- Out of 12 ensemble members, most of them prefer to go through Illinois with fine thickness, giving Chicago heavy snow and Wisconsin.

UKMET- The UKMET indicates the low going through Central Ill. Thickness fine.

WXMAPS Meteogram- Rain to Snow. Unknown accumulation.

HPC- Unknown