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MIDWEST STORM DISCUSSION

18Z RUN OF GFS TAKES SYSTEM INTO CENTRAL IL, PROVIDING HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN N. IL, S. WI.

PREVIOUS 12Z RUN OF GFS INDICATED NW IL WOULD RECEIVE 10+'' AT CURRENT STANCE. HOWEVER, SINCE STORM HAS MOVED SOUTH, THOSE AMOUNTS MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

AT THE NEXT RUN (0Z), BEST DATA CAN BE EXPECTED AS SYSTEM IS FULLY ONSHORE.

WITH CONFIDENCE, WILL NOW MOVE MIDWEST STORM ESTIMATE TO 10 (practically guaranteed).

FOR A BETTER IDEA ON WHERE THE MOST SNOW WILL OCCUR, THE AREAS ABOVE THE RED LINE WILL GET THE HEAVIEST SNOW, WITH THAT HEAVY SNOW ZONE STOPPING AT SOUTH WISCONSIN.

ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 6'', WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS MORE THAN THAT.

Midwest winter storm bulletin- 12z run is more south

Midwest Winter Weather Discussion

A WINTER STORM IS POISED TO AFFECT THE MIDWEST AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME, GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR A TRACK TO RANGE FROM THE WI/IL BORDER TO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ECMWF MODEL HAS CREATED A COMPROMISE THAT APPEARS TO BE SMOOTH ENOUGH TO WORK.

HEAVIEST SNOW NOW APPEARS LIKELY IN THE WISCONSIN AREA. HOWEVER, IN THE SOUTH WI/ NORTH IL AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE AN ALL SNOW EVENT, A RESPECTABLE SNOW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU ARE FROM CENTRAL WISCONSIN, THE LOWER SNOW RATIOS, MEANING WETTER SNOW AND LESSER ACCUMULATIONS.

I AM NOT TOO FOND OF THE ECMWF ATTM, DUE TO A MAJOR FLUCTUATION OVER THE LAST 2-3 RUNS THAT MADE ME LOSE SOME CONFIDENCE WITH SETTING A DEFINITE TRACK.

HOWEVER, SINCE A SLIGHT MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLES AGREE, I WILL LEAN TO A CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TRACK, ADDING IN TO THE SOUTH PORTION DUE TO A CONSISTENT GFS THROUGH THE LAST 3-4 RUNS.

Notice

The 'computer model' will not be created.

That is the only change.