April 15 Severe Weather Outbreak

Once again, today we will be dealing with a severe weather outbreak.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of the Southeast in a moderate risk for severe storms.
Below is today's overall risk.

As we can see, there is a moderate risk over the following areas:
-Much of Mississippi
-Much of Alabama

There is also a slight risk for severe weather over the following areas:
-Southern 2/3 of Illinois
-South Indiana
-Much of Kentucky
-Southeast Missouri
-Extreme East Arkansas
-Much of Tennessee
-Much of Georgia
-East half of Louisiana
-Florida Panhandle
-Western North Carolina
-Western South Carolina

Below is today's tornado risk.

It does appear that the threat for tornadoes prompted this moderate risk area to be issued.
That said, it can be expected at least a local tornado outbreak will occur.
Next is the threat for large hail.

There is an elevated risk in most of the moderate area up north, but the hail risk did not warrant the moderate risk area.
Next and last image is the high wind risk.

There is a 30% chance of damaging winds in the moderate risk area. However, 45% chance of damaging winds is needed for a moderate risk of severe weather.

In summary, a tornado outbreak is growing more concerning in the Southeast.

IMMEDIATE BROADCAST: PDS TORNADO WATCH APRIL 14

URGENT:
THERE IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH IN PLACE IN THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
-NORTHEAST TEXAS
-EAST OKLAHOMA
...UNTIL 10 PM CDT.


AT 4:13PM CDT, SUPERCELLS WERE FORMING IN A SQUALL LINE FORMATION ALONG AN OCCLUDED FRONT.
GIVEN THE DANGEROUS LEVEL OF THIS SITUATION...VIOLENT AND LONG-LIVED TORNADOES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.


THE RISK OF TORNADOES IS HIGH IN THIS REGION.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, FOLLOW THIS LINK.

ANYONE IN THE REGION MENTIONED ABOVE IS STRONGLY ADVISED TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY AND HAVE DISASTER PREPARATIONS IN PLACE.

April 14 Severe Weather Outbreak

There is an outbreak of severe weather forecast today, April 14.
Below are SPC hazards overall.

There is a moderate risk over East Oklahoma, West Arkansas, Extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast Kansas, and extreme southwest Missouri.

Below are threats. In order: Large hail, tornadoes and damaging winds.

We see an elevated risk over the moderate risk area for every threat, but a concerning risk of tornadoes and large hail.
I do predict there will be an outbreak, potentially similar to the one experienced in Wisconsin last weekend.
There is some short-range guidance available to help us out with whether these storms will be a squall line or supercells.

In the above image from the NCEP WRF, we see projected squall lines to develop to the east of a very defined low pressure system.
However, the real worry is placed south of those two lines.

The same WRF model predicts that, hours later, more intense storms will fire up in East Oklahoma. These storms look much more threatening and could be tornadic or have any type of severe weather.

Regardless, this system will be one to watch closely.

Severe Weather Concerns for April 14-16 2011

There is concern for an outbreak of severe thunderstorms in the Plains into the Southern Plains.
Below is today's SPC outlook.

There is already a moderate risk of severe storms in the South Plains. That was made by a 45% risk of severe storms of any probability.
We are going to try and zone in on what the main threats will be and when the storms will start.

The WRF-NMM model above depicts a supercell that will come to light in Kansas. However, that only goes out to 36 hours.
That said, there should be more storms developing instead of just one supercell, but it is too far out to tell from the WRF standpoint.

The NAM, on the other hand, gives out a strong bow echo ripping across the Plains. The NAM keeps the severe threat to the east of the moderate risk area.
Right now, it looks like the bow echo is a good piece to go with forecast-wise, but the SPC keeps moving west. I believe the NAM is holding onto a good solution, but the SPC is playing hardball.

Finally, the HIRESW model agrees with the NAM solution but packs more of a punch into the Kansas/Oklahoma southeast corner of the area. The image above is hourly precipitation rate, by the way.

In summary, there is concern over the storms this far out, and we will monitor the situation.

April 10 Severe Weather Wrap-Up

Going into the evening, a very unstable environment had come together, ripe for severe storms. A trough moving rapidly northeast was being eyed for potential convection before the actual front.
However, in the end it was the cold front itself that generated squall lines.
They started out very thin and rapidly moving NNE. That was their strong point.
As the squall line became thicker it also lost some of it's edge, as you can see on the report map above. The squall line got thicker around the Gary Indiana area.
There was extensive damage in the town of Merril, WI from a potential tornado.
Overall, Wisconsin was definitely the hotspot for storms.