Harrison County, IN EF-0 Tornado April 19-20

Harrison County EF-0
DAMAGE TYPE: TORNADO

BEGIN TIME: 12:09 AM EDT
   END TIME: 12:09 AM EDT

BEGIN POINT: 1.8 MILES NORTHEAST OF CORYDON
  END POINT: 2.2 MILES NORTHEAST OF CORYDON

   EF SCALE: EF-0
WIND SPEED: 65 MPH

PATH LENGTH: 0.3 MILES
PATH WIDTH: 50 YARDS

   INJURIES: 0
FATALITIES: 0

NARRATIVE: NWS STORM DAMAGE SURVEY TEAM CONFIRMS A VERY BRIEF EF-0
TORNADO NORTHEAST OF CORYDON IN HARRISON COUNTY.  NUMEROUS HARDWOOD
AND SOFTWOOD TREES WERE SNAPPED AND UPROOTED ALONG THE NORTHERN BANK
OF INDIAN CREEK.  WIND SPEEDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 MPH ALONG THE
THREE TENTHS OF A MILE TRACK.  PATH WIDTH WAS ABOUT 50 YARDS.

Significant flooding risk exists April 22-28?

A significant flooding risk is coming to light in at least the next 6 days.
Below is the NAM forecast for rain in the next 84 hours.

That is a very high amount above normal of what would typically occur.
That would mean over an inch of rain a day on average in some places.
Next we will look at foreign models starting with the Japan Meteorological Agency JMA model.

This image is for about 6 days out. As we can see there is even more heightened concern over the nation's midsection for flooding.
Already in Louisville, KY houses are flooded and it will only get worse. Much worse.
Finally we have the Canadian models' GEM.

Although this may look like a lot, take a close look at the legend and compare it to the JMA image above.
This image is for 6 days out.
All in all, anyone in the pink area in the image directly above should watch out for major, possibly catastrophic flooding.

Moderate Risk issued for today's April 22 outbreak

A moderate risk has been issued by the SPC for severe storms today, April 22.
Here is the overall risk.

There is a moderate risk area extending from East OK into Northwest AR and South MO.
The biggest threat is hail, as seen in the image below.

The 45% chance ignited the moderate risk alone. Thus, the thinking of a tornado outbreak has dimmed.
However, there is still chance as seen in the tornado risk image below.

However, that risk is located more northerly.
Finally we have the damaging wind threat which is substantial but not warranted for a moderate risk area.

In summary, stay safe if you are in the moderate risk area.
Look on the left and right sidebars for convective outlooks and watches from the SPC.

April 22 Potential Tropical Cyclone Formation Bulletin

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A NON-TROPICAL LOW CENTERED ABOUT
385 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH WINDS NEAR THE SYSTEM APPEAR TO HAVE
DECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
BECOME HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 10 MPH BUT SHOULD SLOW DOWN LATER TODAY.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NHC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST
BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT2 AND WMO HEADER FZNT02 KNHC.
ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS
NECESSARY.

April 21: Tornado Warning- Southeast Terrell County, TX

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR EAST SOUTHEASTERN TERRELL COUNTY... AT 807 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER SOUTHEASTERN TERRELL COUNTY...OR ABOUT 18 MILES EAST OF DRYDEN...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.