Sorry for little posting, am doing it from my phone.

Noon update: severe storms expected for lower great lakes.

Hurricane Irene Now a Category 2 Hurricane; Forecast to Devastate East Coast

This is the NHC's forecast of the track and strength of Irene. With nothing in her was at this time, rapid intensification is forecast to occur. Looking at the ECMWF/GFS/GEM, I am advising the Carolinas to evacuate at this time for safety precautions. (That is not an official statement, but simply a piece of advice based on model forecasts and latest NHC forecasts.) You can check on all my SUGGESTIONS of evacuations AND official announcements on the Hurricane Irene Evacuation Status page.

ECMWF at landfall in the Carolinas

GFS at landfall in the carolinas.

This is why I am suggesting for some people to begin evacuating. This storm has massive potential and may use it for destruction. The NHC forecasts a solid major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) to hit the Carolinas then sweep up the East Coast. That will affect 50 million people, potentially.
This will be the only post until around noontime, and the only detailed post until around 3:20 PM.

Hurricane Irene GFS Track Error

It has been noted that the GFS has an error with the jet stream after hour 108 on the latest 12z model run. This means that Irene is being steered too far east.

Exclusive Threat Level Index (Hurricane Irene, Issued 8/22)