Severe Weather Potential- Feb 18 2012 (2/17/12)

At 1:00 PM CST, the latest 18z NAM model is projecting a possible bow echo to be moving into Louisiana where it will congeal with other strong bands of rain and thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center has put out a slight risk area for tomorrow, but the severe weather probabilities make me conclude that there is at least a chance that the risk could be upgraded to moderate.

Amber Alert- Feb. 17, 2012- Chicago, Illinois

Child Abduction Emergency

ILC007-031-037-043-053-063-075-089-091-093-097-099-103-105-111-
141-197-201-180000-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY
ILLINOIS STATE POLICE SPRINGFIELD IL
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
514 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2012

...CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY AT THE REQUEST OF THE PALATINE POLICE
DEPARTMENT...

AT THE REQUEST OF THE PALATINE POLICE DEPARTMENT, THE ILLINOIS
EMERGENCY ALERT SYSTEM IS ACTIVATED FOR AN AMBER ALERT.

A CHILD...ERIBERTO PEREZ...WAS ABDUCTED FROM 430 WEST PALATINE
ROAD...APARTMENT NUMBER 1...PALATINE ILLINOIS LAST NIGHT...FEBRUARY
16...2012 AT 830PM.

ERIBERTO PEREZ IS AN 8 YEAR OLD WHITE MALE...WHO IS 4 FOOT 10 INCHES
TALL...AND WEIGHS 100 POUNDS. HE HAS BLACK HAIR AND BROWN EYES. HE
IS WEARING A GRAY HOODED SWEATSHIRT...RED SHIRT WITH BLACK
SLEEVES...AND BLUE JEANS. THE CHILD WAS TAKEN BY WILLIAM CRUZ...WHO
IS A 30 YEAR OLD MALE WHITE. HE IS 5 FOOT 11 INCHES TALL...AND
WEIGHS 180 POUNDS.  HE HAS BLACK HAIR IN A CREW CUT...AND BROWN
EYES. HE IS WEARING A GRAY AND WHITE HOODED SWEATSHIRT...BLACK JEANS
AND WHITE NIKE GYM SHOES. HE HAS A TATTOO ON HIS RIGHT WRIST AND
ALSO HIS LEFT ARM. THE VEHICLE IS A SILVER 2001 CHRYSLER 4 DOOR...
WITH ILLINOIS LICENSE P...5...3...0...1...1...8.

ANYONE WITH INFORMATION SHOULD CALL 9-1-1 AND ADVISE THEY HAVE AN
AMBER ALERT REPORT.  THIS CONCLUES THIS AMBER ALERT ISSUED BY THE
ILLINOIS STATE POLICE.

$$

February 18-20 Snow Event (2/17/12)

Short range models are indicating the likelihood of a winter storm event occurring over the central Eastern Seaboard. Accumulations are expected to top out at 1 foot over southern WV and east KY. There is a small chance of icing. Any ice accumulations would top out at 0.10''.
I haven't had time to look at other models recently, but the short range models I have glanced over appear in sync.

2-17-12 Afternoon

I severely underestimated my cold, which is now in full bloom. Thus said, There will be no further posting today while I rest up.
Sorry
Andrew

I need everyone to sign this

https://wwws.whitehouse.gov/petitions/!/petition/prevent-budget-cuts-national-weather-service/nQVPd4l2

I need EVERYONE to sign and share this petition to discourage MASSIVE budget cuts that would otherwise be enforced on the NWS, including total cut of funding for hurricane models.

-Andrew