Aggressive ECMWF model ignites snowstorm potential for Midwest

The ECMWF model, considered a leader in winter storms, is taking a big and bold step to take a very strong storm through the Midwest and Ohio Valley early next week Monday to Tuesday.

The below images are 850mb and temperature forecasts for the winter storm.

The low pressure is well defined in Oklahoma and Arkansas with an intense cold outbreak behind it.

By the next day, the low pressure has moved into the Ohio Valley and even more well defined.

The cold outbreak is very intense by now. Below is a map made by The Weather Centre.

Here at the Weather Centre, we are expecting, should this storm develop, the above areas would be under a risk of precipitation.

It would be a wide swath of snow to the north and rain to the south.

The situation will likely change, so find more information on the Winter Storm page as this develops.

Current Severe Weather Situation (Jan 25)

As of 4:42pm CDT, a squall line was moving through Florida with a tornado watch in effect.

Rest Of The 2010-2011 Winter Forecast

Looks like we're close to the half-way point in winter, and The Weather Centre is here to bring you the rest of winter forecast.

The CPC and Accuweather have given a good look at what can be expected for the rest of winter. Combined with typical La Nina conditions, this should be a fairly accurate forecast.

Below is The Weather Centre's forecast for the rest of winter.

Cold and snowy conditions should remain for the rest of this winter across the Great Lakes, Midwest. I stretched it a bit south due to the risk of farther stretching storms as we have seen this winter.

I did keep the warm, dry section in place.

For the Southeast, occasional cooler periods can be expected due to the proximity to the Midwest and Great Lakes.

Arctic outbreaks may become more frequent as the winter lags on, also bringing that cooler period risk to justice.

Of concern is in the Northeast, where I did place the risk for more winter storms in the event of more big, strong winter storms.

Wet and Snowy conditions are expected in the Northwest as more storms begin to come back to the area.

The Southwest should remain dry for the rest of this winter.

In a winter of craziness, a normal period may come to settle in the Rockies and west Plains.

Don't forget to vote on the poll on the left sidebar and watch for the Spring forecast coming in early to mid February.

NORTHEAST STORM DISCUSSION

January 24, 2011 Evening

Discussion...

12Z MODEL RUN DID NOT CLEAR UP MUCH CONFUSION.

ONCE AGAIN, GFS MODEL IS THE CLOSEST TO THE COAST. THE NAM BEGAN TO AGREE BUT NOW RELAYS THE STORM WILL FOLLOW THE NOGAPS MODEL AND STAY FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST.

AT THIS TIME, THE SNOWMAP AND ICEMAP ON THE EAST COAST STORM PAGE HAVE BEEN BASED ON THE GFS MODEL.

ADDING TO AN ALREADY DIFFICULT SITUATION, THE GEM AND UKMET MODELS INSTEAD RUN THE STORM NORTH THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

CURRENT THINKING... I AM TEMPTED TO PULL THE SNOWMAP AND ICEMAP OUT AND REVISE IT.

THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL DOES GO WITH THE GFS, SO WILL KEEP THE ICEMAP, SNOWMAP IN PLACE.

NO SURE-FIRE SITUATION IS FOR SURE, BUT...AT THIS TIME, AM LEANING FOR THE GFS TRACK AS THE NCEP ENSEMBLE AND SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AGREE.

East Coast Storm Page

A page has just been created for the East Coast Storm this week.

It contains the new IceCAST and SnowCAST.