Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Potential MW Snowstorm

This is a bulletin for a potential MW snowstorm 10-15 days out.

This was issued because meteorologists are talking about Midwest Cities receiving snow- sticking snow- in the 10-15 day period.
Yes, I know. A long way out. But ensembles can help with that.

The mass ensemble run shows 7 out of 12 ensembles with a storm coming through.
However, 1 ensemble shows the thickness too high for snow, and another one shows the thickness right for snow and ice.
So 5/12 ensembles are predicting snow in that period.
Chance of SNOW occurring: 42%
Chance of ANY PRECIP occurring: 58%

What is really surprising is that one frame way out there shows 9 out of 12 ensembles saying Precipitation.
6 of those ensembles show SNOW will be OK to occur.
1 of the 9 ensembles show ICE may occur.
2 of the 9 ensembles show RAIN may occur.
Chance of SNOW: 50%
Chance of ICE: 8%
Chance of RAIN: 13%
Chance of ANY PRECIP: 75%
For this far out, those are VERY good chances.

In the VERY NEXT frame, 10 of the 12 ensembles show precip.
8 of those 10 show SNOW.
1 of that 7 is a TOSSUP, but FAVORS SNOW. That same ensemble shows the heaviest precip.
2 of the original 10 ensembles snow a mix is possible, but favoring SNOW.
Chance of SNOW: 83%
Chance of ICE: 8%
Chance of RAIN: Roughly 5%.

In the NEXT FRAME, 3 of the 12 ensembles show SNOW occurring.
Chance of SNOW: 25%.

In the NEXT FRAME, 4 ensembles show Precip.
2 of the ensembles show SNOW.
2 of the ensembles show RAIN.
Chance of SNOW: 17%
Chance of RAIN: 17%
Chance of ANY PRECIP: 33%
So not too good chances.

On the last frame, the ensembles show 9 of the 12 ensembles producing precip.
All of them look to be a MIX except two.
Two of them look to be RAIN.
Chance of ICE: 58%
Chance of RAIN: 17%
That's an exceptional turnout for that far away.

Conclusion
It looks like that there should be a major snow event in the next 2 weeks.
Updates later.

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