From our sister blog, the Winter Weather Centre.
|Hour 264 of 12z GFS|
There is a potential for a storm in the February 1-2 timeframe, eerily similar in the timeframe to last year's blizzard in Chicago. The storm is even in a very strong stance, much like how strong the blizzard was last year. Considering how the pattern may be close to at least a partial change, I would not dispute the possibility of a storm in this timeframe.
The GFS Ensembles are showing a different story- one that I would trust more considering how bad the models have been this winter.
|Hour 252 of the 12z GFS ENS.|
|Hour 264 of the 12z GFS ENS.|
The GFS Ensembles still have a storm present going in the general same track, but keeps the lower Great Lakes warn throughout the storm event. Again, because the GFS has been so bad this winter I would trust the ensembles right now, but any ensemble or model is still uncertain because this is so long range.