Monday, January 23, 2012

February 1-2 Possible Snowfall

From our sister blog, the Winter Weather Centre.
Hour 264 of 12z GFS

There is a potential for a storm in the February 1-2 timeframe, eerily similar in the timeframe to last year's blizzard in Chicago. The storm is even in a very strong stance, much like how strong the blizzard was last year. Considering how the pattern may be close to at least a partial change, I would not dispute the possibility of a storm in this timeframe.
The GFS Ensembles are showing a different story- one that I would trust more considering how bad the models have been this winter.
Hour 252 of the 12z GFS ENS.
Hour 264 of the 12z GFS ENS.
The GFS Ensembles still have a storm present going in the general same track, but keeps the lower Great Lakes warn throughout the storm event. Again, because the GFS has been so bad this winter I would trust the ensembles right now, but any ensemble or model is still uncertain because this is so long range.

43 comments:

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.How are you doing today! Hopefully fine! Who would be affected by this potential storm? Would i be included in this in Ohio where i'm located?

Owen12789 said...

Is this snowstorm going to take the same track as last years blizzard and hit Springfield, IL again? What are your thoughts?

Andrew said...

Mike: I'm doing great today- hopefully you are as well. If this were to verify, Ohio would get some snow, on the order of 3 inches +.

Owen: This will not be taking the same track if it verifies, but it may hit Springfield.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.I just notice the NAO values start going up again in the long range.This morning is was the opposite.Maybe the models are having a hard time predicting this.

Aran said...

If you look at the GFS long range model at hour 276 it looks as there might be a storm in the northeast Illinois and northern/northwest Indiana areas.Could your please tell me your opinions.I might be reading it wrong.

Andrew said...

Mike: Something tells me that the NAO will be bumpy for a while but should settle into a negative rut at some point.

Aran: That is the same storm that this post focuses on.

Anonymous said...

Im going out on the point and saying winter will not happen nao wont change ao wont change everything is staying positive and if it goes negative its only for a day so this winter is a bust we will all have to wait for winter 2012/2013 give up its over this year

Anonymous said...

This winter sucks. Why do we even use models. They change their minds completely every 12 hours. Why are they so bad? Freaking pisses me off.

Anonymous said...

Hey I came upon this site today and just wanted to know how many years of experience you have predicting the winter. I want a sense of how old you are and how accurate your predictions are based on how you have done in the past.

Aran said...

ANONYMOUS 1 AND 2 WINTER WON'T BE A BUST.#2 THE MODELS DON'T COMPLETELY CHANGE.I HAVE BEEN WATCHING THIS STORM SINCE FRIDAY AND MOST AREAS ARE STILL IN IT.ANDREW SORRY I DID'NT KNOW.

Anonymous said...

Hey Andrew, once again great work with storm totals on that last winter blast. I have a question for you? Do believe February will be the break out of winter storms in the great lakes region? I believe it will be pay back time. U can only run from winter so long.

MIKE PAULOCSAK said...

HELLO ARAN.I AGREE WITH WHAT YOUR SAYING.WINTER IS NOT OVER YET!

MIKE PAULOCSAK said...

HI ANDREEW.MY LOCAL METEOROLOGIST MENTIONED A BIG CHANGE IN FEBRUARY.I JUST SEEN THIS ON MY 5:00 LOCAL NEWS.HE MENTIONED IT WILL BE VERY,VERY INTERESTING NEXT WEEK ON!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

how old is everyone on this site? Like 15 years and below? LOL

Aran said...

Dosen't matter as long as we know what we are talking about.I am only 10 years of age and know how to read some models very accurately.

Anonymous said...

NONE OF YOUR BUSINESS HOW OLD PEOPLE ARE HERE!!!

Aran said...

I was kind of thinking the same thing anonymous #2.I almost didn't say how old I was.

Andrew said...

Anonymous #1: You are entitled to your opinion. The best I can say is I hope that doesn't happen.

Anonymous #2: The models are usually fairly good- this winter, however, they are as bad as it gets.

Anonymous #3: I have been predicting winter forecasts for a few years now. As for verification, the 2010-2011 winter was a pretty good verification, but obviously this year's forecast has not fared well.

Aran: It's fine- backside snows can occasionally turn into their own little snow systems.

Anonymous #4: Thank you. I believe that February has at least a decent chance of getting a good winter blast in the US. The atmosphere, particularly the stratosphere, is acting erratically right now. We have to watch it for that reason. The NAO, AO are also in negative territory and are looking better.

Mike: Yes- the next few weeks look very interesting.

Anonymous #5: The age of posters is not something to be discussed on this blog.

Aran said...

I am sorry I meant anonymous #5.

Anonymous said...

Andrew just please tell me how old you are. Maturity is important as younger kids tend to wishcast.

Andrew said...

Anonymous: Just as a general rule, I have found over the years that age does not matter- it matters if you know what you're talking about. There are indeed kids out there that know what they're talking about.

MIKE PAULOCSAK said...

Hey ANONYMOUS.IT IS NONE OF YOUR BUSINESS HOW OLD ANDREW IS.THIS SITE IS FOR POSTING ABOUT WEATHER,NOT PEOPLE'S AGES.IF YOU WANT TO KNOW MY AGE,I'M 35 GOING ON 36 THIS MAY.SO ANOTHER WORDS,PLEASE STOP ASKING ANDREW HOW OLD HE IS.HE PROBABLY WON'T TELL YOU ANYWAY.I MYSELF ENJOY COMING TO THIS SITE FOR WEATHER INFO.NOT ASKING PEOPLE'S AGES.ANDREW,I HOPE YOU UNDERSTAND WHY I POSTED THIS POST.I'M TRYING TO GET IT THROUGH THE PERSON WHO'S ASKING HOW OLD YOU ARE.ANOTHER THING,YOU SHOULD PUT YOUR NAME AND QUIT HIDDING BEHIND ANONYMOUS.

peterbilt5000 said...

Andrew, How are you feeling about Iowa being involved in this possible storm?

Local guys aren't out that far, and can't be trusted past 2 days out. We are also looking at warmer temps between now and then.

J.

Anonymous said...

That tells me, you are definitely under 15, probably closer to like 10-12. That's cool that you didn't want to say your exact age Andrew, I was just curious. But I knew you were a kid. Just wanted to find out for sure.

Andrew said...

Peterbilt: Iowa may be involved, just checking out the GFS Ensembles.

Anonymous: You may think what you want, but I am not going to be discussing ages of me or anyone else on this blog.

mike paulocsak said...

Hello Anonymous who keeps bringing up ages.I have lived through many,many,many more snowstorms then you have.As for discussing ages,give it up please.

Anonymous said...

haha ok mike, guess that means you're better than me right? After all you have lived through many more snowstorms. Dang I'm so jealous. Gosh my life sucks. LOL. I like snow, but I'm just not as addicted to it as you guys. And plus, you have no idea how old I am. So you don't even know if that is true. Jeez I'm gonna have to move to Alaska now. hahahahaha

mike paulocsak said...

You know something anonymous.Things were alot more peaceful here until you came along.Also,why don't you type your real name and quit hiding behind anoymous!!!

Andrew said...

Anonymous, I'm going to have to ask you to stop discussing the whole ages deal and not be so sarcastic in general. This is purely a weather blog, not meant to be interrupted with sarcasm and irrelevant discussions.

MIKE PAULOCSAK said...

HI ANDREW.I HOPE YOU UNDERSTAND I'M TRYING TO GET THROUGH TO THIS RUDE PERSON.I'M NOT TRYING TO CAUSE TROUBLE.

Anonymous said...

so basically this is a great lakes and ohio valley storm or is it capable of scratching the southeast.

Andrew said...

I do understand, but something that you and even I may need to recognize is that this attention only feeds the trolls. I am by no means restricting you, but as for my part, I think i'm going to get off this post and let this person (who I have an idea who this person is) move along.

Andrew said...

Anonymous: This may have a chance to bring some potentially strong to severe storms to the South if it verifies.

Mike the Snow Lover said...

Last comment on this post. Why do you want to know my name mike? How will that do anything?

I am Mike who has lived through many snowstorms said...

And Andrew...you don't know who I am. You have no way of knowing. Just had to say that as I missed your comment. I really wasn't trying to cause trouble. I was just curious to see how old you were to see how credible your site would be. Mike didn't have to jump in on our conversation. That got me a little angry. I'm done now. Nothing against you or this site. And no I'm not a troll.

EDDIE said...

Leave Andrew Mike and all the other posters alone because your making everyone mad by disrupting this post. Andrew has been very informative and has taught me alot in the last couple of months i have been coming here!

Anonymous said...

To those attacking Andrew, stop it. He knows more about weather than any of you who are attacking him. Just to warn you, this is coming from a senior meteorologist. Age is not everything. Doing well with forecasting is the most important thing. I will tell you one thing, we are loyal supporters and friends of Andrew and we will defend him. He runs this site better than many could ever. Age is NOT an issue. Skill is and Andrew has it. Thank you.

Alice McDonald said...

I look forward to hearing more about the possible snowfall. It is sort of deja vu from last years posts.

Aran said...

It kind of looks like it has lost it's intensity.Is this true?

Anonymous said...

is nyc going to get in on this snowstorm

Peterbilt said...

So how is this system looking today?

Any updates?

Jen from Toledo said...

hi andrew.....just a little validation here. you posted about possible snows, feb 1-2 on the 23rd of january....well, hats off to you, our local guy just said lets be on the lookout for a decent snow maker, the end of this coming week.....thank you andrew, for all you do!!! you had it pegged 5 or so days earlier!

Andrew said...

Jen: I can only hope it actually happens.