The CMC, which was the only model to have a storm explode over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region, has won out over the other models.
The ECMWF, GFS, CMC, NOGAPS models are now all in agreement that a very strong low pressure system will head up somewhere in the Ohio Valley after crossing through South Illinois.
While the NOGAPS is farthest south in this transistion north, it is also the most powerful.
The ECMWF and GFS seem to be in very good agreement with each other over what a current track would be.
The ECMWF is northerly, but it is quite a contender.
I will keep in some CMC model, since it has been forecasting this pattern for the last couple days.
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