Tuesday, March 1, 2011

March 1st Forecast Discussion

Model Analyses
-ECMWF: Has strong low track through South IL with rain/snow line in WI/IL border. South Track.
-NOGAPS: NOGAPS goes into Central IL heading northeast.
-GEM: Takes ECMWF track, but rain/snow line collapses down into Central IL. South Track.
-GFS: Takes strong low pressure through North IL. North Track.
-DGEX: Takes Low through Central IL with rain/snow line in WI/IL border. Arctic air quickly follows, making backside precip all snow.

Consensus: DGEX and NOGAPS are in good agreement with each other on a middle track, while ECMWF and GEM are in agreement with each other. Will have to make GFS an outlier, and at this time, will go with a NOGAPS/ECMWF solution.

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