Wednesday, May 25, 2011

May 25 Moderate Risk Severe Weather


A large upper low over the Central Plains will shift eastward and weaken as it does so.
A broad scale of severe weather is expected across the moderate risk areas today. The main threats are tornadoes and large hail in the moderate risk area. There is the possibility of scattered strong/damaging tornadoes today.
As of right now, a band of convection is moving north through Illinois and Iowa. As the storms fan out into the Ohio Valley and Upper Great Lakes, the airmass ahead of the storms will be conductive for severe weather.
Later in the day, more storm initiation will occur to the west, inside Missouri. Strong instability and a 70-kt mid level jet stream will allow these storms to go supercellular and with bowing storms. Low level rotation will be enhanced by low level shear, and there is a chance for strong/large tornadoes.
This second band should cross the Mississippi River into the evening. Severe threat will decrease at that point.
Today's Hail threat

Today's Tornado threat

Today's Wind threat

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