Tuesday, May 31, 2011

May 31, 2011 Severe Weather Forecast

There is a moderate risk of severe weather in the 'glove' of Michigan.

An upper low and shortwave trough will eject into the area forecast for severe weather today. Deep level flow fields appear to be favorable for organized severe storms with damaging winds and hail.
It appears to be that storms will increase in coverage as the cold front ejects into western upper Michigan and Central Wisconsin, with an increase in intensity as the storms move through North IL, IN, and east across lower MI.
The storm modes appear to be bowing segments and supercells early on, which will transition into a more widespread severe wind threat. It was, in the end, the wind threat that initiated the moderate risk area.
As the storms turn linear, along with other factors, the tornado threat is not favorable for tornadoes.

Today's hail outlook

Today's wind outlook

Today's tornado outlook

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