Wednesday, June 1, 2011

June 1- 30% chance of tropical cyclone development (Atlantic Ocean)

The National Hurricane Center has outlined a storm system to the east of Florida for possible development  today before moving over Florida and weakening.
However, if the system continues to move west from Florida and reaches the Gulf of Mexico, it could redevelop even stronger and possibly into a tropical cyclone.
Above is the satellite view of the system. We can see the system is small but very compact. Upon looking very closely, it does appear some circulation may be occurring in the system.
We do have ensembles of forecast tracks and intensity.
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This ensemble shows an ensemble of several models for the forecast track of this system. Right now, the popular [track is for the system to cross Florida and keep close to the Gulf of Mexico. Then, the low is forecast to come onshore either on Texas or Louisiana and curve through Texas. A couple models actually take the low through the Plains.
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This is an intensity forecast as of how strong this system could get. All the models bring this system to at least minimal tropical storm system status. 2 models actually get close to Category 1 hurricane status, and one of those models does take the low into that strength category.

In summary, I do expect a potential tropical storm to occur, but it does look like the storm will dissipate as it crosses Florida. Everyone in Florida should be prepared for heavy rains and gusty winds regardless of development, and the Gulf Coast folk should keep an eye to the skies and this blog for further daily, in-depth information.

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