Thursday, June 23, 2011

June 23- Morning Tropical Cyclone Discussion- Atlantic Ocean

Good morning everyone, this is the Atlantic Ocean Tropical Cyclone Discussion.
There are no depressions, storms or hurricanes ongoing in the Atlantic, so we will zoom in on other features.

There is a tropical wave around the middle of the Atlantic ocean in between Africa and South America. This wave, should it move to the west northwest, could prove an ingredient to make a tropical cyclone piece.

This is a fairly new territory that The Weather Centre is exploring in the way of ingredients necessary for tropical development, so we will learn from our mistakes along the way.

850-300 mb plots of shear are up to 20 knots, which looks to be a fairly good amount. What we don't want is high shear, which would heavily limit potential for TC development. However, when compared to the direction that 850 mb winds are going, it does look like there is a change in wind direction, but it is to an extent that appears to be somewhat sufficient for development as of the current time.

Looking ahead several hours, it looks like 300 mb wind direction will become opposite of 850 mb winds, which could prove to be a problem. Shearing will also increase in the area, up to about 25 knots.

Around 1 am Saturday, the shearing will have decreased once again to up to 20 knots, and directions will have improved.

All in all, this tropical wave looks like there is potential. However, once again, keep in mind we are only beginning to check out tropical cyclone ingredients and will likely be wrong on some counts of parameters or guesses.

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