Thursday, June 9, 2011

June 9- Hurricane Adrian (Cat. 1) Morning Discussion

Adrian is a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds. It's minimum central pressure is 979 millibars, and is moving to the northwest at 12 mph.
Adrian continues to move parallel to land and will do so while keeping the same pace over the next few days. In that time period, Adrian is now forecast to intensify into a major hurricane (Cat. 3 or higher).
With a very good consensus still in place and only improving, the solution is for Adrian to keep parallel to land and move along out to sea.
Although the NHC puts Adrian in Category 3 or higher strength, these ensembles don't do that at all. Only a few out of all the ensembles go into minimum Category 3 strength.
I don't know what the NHC looks at, but I will agree with them instead of these ensembles.
Infrared satellite imagery displays a classic hurricane made from Adrian. A well defined eye, eyewall, and swirling bands of showers and storms indicate Adrian is a healthy hurricane. While the east flank could use some evening out, this storm is not in danger of dissipating anytime soon.

Adrian is a Category 1 hurricane and a healthy one at that. It will strengthen and move to the northwest over the next several days and intensify.

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