Saturday, July 9, 2011

2011-2012 Winter Forecast: MEI June Update

Stay tuned for the next update (by August 6th, or earlier) to see where the MEI will be heading next. La Niña conditions have at least briefly expired in the MEI sense, making ENSO-neutral conditions the safest bet for the next few months. However, a relapse into La Niña conditions is not at all off the table, based on the reasoning I gave in September 2010 - big La Niña events have a strong tendency to re-emerge after 'taking time off' during northern hemispheric summer, as last seen in 2008. I believe the odds for this are still better than 50/50.

The MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index) is an agency that monitors ENSO conditions. The above paragraph is a small portion of what it has published for the June update.
The MEI will be updating again this month soon, and when it does we will be posting the update. 
The reason I have posted this is to recognize the fact that there is scientific evidence by respected scientific officials for a chance of a strong La Nina re-occurring after settling down for the summer.
You can see other 2011-2012 winter forecast posts on the right sidebar.

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