Sunday, August 21, 2011

TS Irene 6:00 PM 8/21 Update: ECMWF and GFS go all out on Southeast Coast

This is the 6:00 PM update for Tropical Storm Irene.
It's been quite a wild day for the computer models. At this stage, as Irene has become a tropical storm, that means some sense has been knocked into present and future model forecasts. At this point, it appears the entire Southeast Coast is at risk for hurricane conditions in the next 5 days.
Here is the ECMWF ensemble as of the 12z run from today. It appears that the ECMWF ensembles brush the East Coast. It's still too far out to see if Irene makes landfall in the Carolinas or not, but the likelihood of that is high.
Here is the real ECMWF model run. The ECMWF goes to devastating lengths to impact the East Coast (Georgia, Carolinas). This outlines a very deadly situation should no one heed these warnings. It does appear that the ECMWF is a front runner in model reliability. While it is a far ways out, the ECMWF is a very trusted model, which means you should be on the lookout if you live in the states previously mentioned.
The GFS makes landfall with Irene a bit south of the ECMWF but still dangerously strong. Pressures appear to be lower in this run than in previous runs, indicating a stronger system.
We will have more on this situation in coming days.

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