Monday, September 5, 2011

Katia will go out to sea; Unreliable CMC model hits New England

The NHC is predicting Katia to go out to sea, as it appears will happen. The East Coast will likely be safe this time, but there is another wave going off the coast of Africa. That's a different story. Katia will likely strengthen and become a major hurricane soon. As that happens, a trough will break into the western portion of the Azores High, allowing Katia to slip through the cracks.
This is a spaghetti model of the models tracking Katia. See the light blue line that scrapes New England? That's the CMC model. It is considered a very unreliable model and will be discounted at this time. Every other model lets Katia go out to sea, and I believe that is the best solution at this time.

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