Monday, September 12, 2011

Long Range GFS shows Squall Line for Midwest, Disturbance moving off Africa

Today's 12z and 18z GFS model runs show two things around the 216-hour time frame: A Midwest squall line (with heavy rains) and a disturbance moving off the coast of Africa.
Here's the 12z image, followed by the 18z image.

The 12z GFS is more trustworthy, as it takes in data documented by instruments sent up in the air that same day. The 18z and 6z runs don't have that gift, but the 0z and 12z runs of all models have that special backing that builds their evidence a little stronger.
The bad things about that, though, is the 12z image shows the squall line with heavier rains moving slower eastward, while the disturbance off Africa moves a bit faster than the 18z and appears to be slightly bigger.

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