Sunday, October 16, 2011

18z Models Bring Florida to Tropical Watch Status

Pre-Reading Notes: 'Tropical Watch' is a term made by The Weather Centre. This Tropical Watch was NOT produced by the NOAA, and will not be produced by NOAA unless noted.

Today's 18z models have brought Florida some dark news as both statistical and dynamical models are indicating a landfall on Florida. Here's their images, with descriptions of why they are called 'statistical' and 'dynamical'.

Statistical Models
'Statistical Models' are models that do not take into account current atmospherical conditions. In this case, the models aren't really on the favored side, but can be used in comparison against dynamical models. These statistical models show the storm forecast to impact Florida with a landfall hit.
Dynamical Models
'Dynamical Models' are models that do take into account current atmospheric conditions, unlike statistical models, and are thus more favored when looking at models. These dynamical models aren't far off from the statistical models above, but they do appear to have more of a consensus of making landfall in Central Florida.
That said, here is The Weather Centre's Forecast Graphic

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