Sunday, October 2, 2011

ECMWF Shows Tropical System Uncomfortably Close to Florida in Oct. 10-15 timeframe

The ECMWF is once again calling  out for a tropical system to be uncomfortably close to the East Coast or Gulf of Mexico, but this time it's for the Eastern Seaboard. This image from the 0z ECMWF shows a tropical system ominously close to Florida at a level that would definitely concern me. But there is a reason I believe this October 10-15 timeframe is something to be on a heightened state of alert for.
I came across Joe Bastardi (Chief Meteorologist at Weatherbell, Former Chief Long-Range Meteorologist at Accuweather) in a video where he addressed hurricane concerns. He outlines the October 10-15 period as a period in which may have a better potential for a tropical system to form in the Caribbean. The reason being, is that a high pressure system will settle over the Eastern US. If that happens, Bastardi believes a low could enter warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean and develop. While using examples like Hurricanes Wilma, Hazel, i'm definitely thinking there is some logic behind this, and that the ECMWF is calling a tropical system in the timeframe for a reason. We will keep a close watch on this system.

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