Saturday, October 8, 2011

General Consensus Forms; Strength Forecast to Remain Low for Tropical System

This latest 0z suite of models has formed a good consensus in the possibility and likelihood that this storm will stay just off the coast of the US. In the image above we did create a preferred track for this storm as well as a cone of possibility. This cone of possibility is where the storm could go, but at this point in time we believe this cone will be the areas that could get hit with effects from the storm.
The 0z model consensus also sent out a clear message- this storm will likely remain weak. We here at The Weather Centre agree on this concept, since the storm will not be forming in the still warm waters of the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico. Soon after development, this system will be moving northward into cooler waters, so anything above a strong tropical storm is unlikely. I could see up to a moderate tropical storm as the highest threat within the realm of possibility.

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