Thursday, October 6, 2011

***UPDATED*** 2011-2012 Winter Snowfall Map for Midwest

We are unable to post an explanation at this time due to unforeseen issues. We will try our best to get something out there soon.

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

Could you please post your reasoning for this map?? I live in Wisconsin just north of the state Illinois state line and I do NOT want heavy snow this winter!!!!!

Andrew said...

This is a La Nina year, so right off the bat it is slightly more on the likely side that we will get heavier precipitation than normal. However, this year, temperatures will be bitterly cold. When temperatures are really cold, snow ratios go up. (snow ratio is 1 inch of water equates to 'x' inches of snow). A traditional example of snow ratios is 1:10, where 1 inch of rain equals 10 inches of snow. An extreme snow ratio can go up to 1:20 or higher. Anyways, with those cold temperatures, the snow ratios will rise. This year will feature clippers for the area, which in turn bring heavy winds and biting cold temperatures. That said, clippers that would usually leave 1-3 inches may leave up to 6 inches this winter as a commonplace occurrence.

Anonymous said...

All right I guess that sort of makes sense. I just have one more question (for now)! If it is going to be so cold, wouldn't that trough push your preferred storm track to the south? I am sure that you know more about this stuff than I do, and I am just trying to learn my way through this stuff.

Andrew said...

Well the track is more generalized than anything and will not be the final track in the mid November forecast. The main thing will be clippers, as stated earlier, which drop from Canada and usually hang in the Upper midwest. It is likely that these clippers will go through the area untouched by the air mass, but we don't know. We haven't investigated that area yet.

Andrew said...

I encourage you to ask questions- I check the comments on almost daily basis. If you have any questions you can comment on any post.

Anonymous said...

Thanks a lot! Good luck to you on your forecasts!

rod said...

HI ANDREW LOVE YOUR WEATHER CENTRE!!! I LIVE IN NORTHEAST -IOWA 45 MINUTES TO THE NORTHWEST OF DUBUQUE IN GUTTENBERG-IOWA ARE YOU THINKING NOW THAT THIS MIGHT BE A LOT LIKE 2007-08 WINTER? WE HAD LOTS OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS -COLD WEATHER AND BIG STORMS THAT CAME FROM THE WEST -SOUTHWEST-GAVE US A LOT OF SNOW BREAKING RECORDS IN DUBUQUE -MADISON MILWAUKEE -AND MINNIAPOLIS FOR MOST SNOWS -FOR THAT WINTER- YOUR NEW SNOW MAP REMINDS ME OF THAT- WILL WE DO THIS AGAIN? -I HOPE WHAT IS YOUR OPINION---ALSO IF I REMEMBER THAT FALL-IT WAS REALLY MILD AND DRY TILL MID NOVEMBER -AND IT SURELY IS ACTING LIKE THAT NOW -CAN'T WAIT FOR YOUR REPLY KEEP UP THE GREAT WORK ROD

Andrew said...

Hey there Rod-
We are using 2007-2008 as an analogue in the weather world, meaning it is a year that we are seeing as similar to this upcoming winter. I do believe clippers will be the big thing this year, as well as cold blasts, but anything beyond that is less certain.

ChelleKy said...

Okay, so I've read so many different things ... in and around Mayfield Ky...are you predicting large snowfall...ice? Rain? I'm curious about what the weather holds for us this winter...I am weird maybe but I am one of the few that enjoy the winter...it's just cozy!

Andrew said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Andrew said...

Kentucky will be in the 'battle zone'- that is, there will be ice, snow and rain throughout the year. It will get pretty messy in your area. And you're not weird- you're one of the weather enthusiasts, just like we are!

Anonymous said...

what about omaha/fremont nebraska area what will our winter be like ???

Anonymous said...

We are in lower SW Michigan right at the IN/MI border....5 minutes from Lake Michigan. This is snow belt country with heavy lake-effect snow at times.

All wide open farm lands so no skyscrapers to affect the wind or blowing snow.

The way your predictions sound along with your snow-pattern maps, it appears we are right in the heart of what could be the storms of the century.

Any thoughts specific to our area?

Andrew said...

For Nebraska: I'm thinking a winter similar to last year in most aspects, probably a tad cooler.

For SW Michigan: since the Great Lakes are warm this year (but may have cooled with the churning up of waters due to the big windy storms in the last few months), the lake effect snow (LES) machine will likely be on high this winter. Your area will also likely be somewhat cooler.
HOWEVER- LES is very difficult to forecast for, which is why we don't advise using it for our snow day formula.

Anonymous said...

I live by Hinkley, MN. I'm Trying to prepare for the upcoming winter.... Do you think we will have more snow than last year or about the same. With this map it looks as though I may have to shovel a tunnel to get out my door this year. I love snow and I've been praying to see the day that my house is buried...

Anonymous said...

Hi Andrew,

I love winter! Mainly the months December and January though. I live in about 90 miles southwest of Indianapolis. It looks like your forecast will give us a pretty good chance for a white Christmas, my kids and I would both love!

Andrew said...

Hinkley, MN- It appears your area will be under the frigid air that the North Plains will be under this winter, but it may remain on an angle that you may get the maximum snow for when clippers are diverted south due to the frigid air in place over North MN, ND, etc.

90 miles SW Indianapolis- A white Christmas is something we cannot do this far out. Unfortunately, your region (spoiler alert) will be considered part of the ice threat this winter in our final winter forecast. It is certainly possible you will get a white Christmas, but it is just too far out to tell. We wish you luck!

You can both check out our Final 2011-2012 Winter Forecast, which will be released on November 5th at 12:00 PM CDT for the National Forecast. Regional forecasts will be released at every 10 minute mark after noon until 1:00 PM CDT.

JordanR said...

Hey Andrew,
I just found your website and i love it!! I live in Pinckneyville, IL which is in Southern Illinois about 50-60 miles southeast of St. Louis, MO. I was wondering can i expect a lot of snow this winter? Possibly a white Christmas like last year?(An amazing 5 inches!) Or should we expect a crippling ice storm like in Feb of last year when I was without power for 3 days. Or the Ice Storm of 08'? I can't wait for your reply! Thanks!

Andrew said...

JordanR- It is too far out to pinpoint if your area will have a White Christmas- or anyone's area, for that matter. However, with an increased cold air pool in the north US that may be pulled south as storms pass throughout the nation's midsection, I believe there is potential for it. Your area is also in the chance for ice this winter.

You can check out our Final 2011-2012 Winter Forecast which will be released on November 5th at 12:00 PM CDT for the national version. Regional times come out at 10 minute increments until 1:00 PM CDT.