Monday, December 12, 2011

December 20 Snow Event Briefing (Updated 12/12)

The GFS Ensembles have been getting slightly stronger with this storm each run in terms of amounts of precipitation. We will have a full discussion this afternoon as we are currently limited on time.

Do you want your own town's winter forecast? Click here and comment on the post with the location you want a forecast for. Towns will be accepted thru Dec. 20

15 comments:

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.Does hour 204 on the GFS pc model still put my area in for some decent snow?Hopefully it does.It looks like it changed from the last runs.

Owen12789 said...

Does this storm look to dump anything on Springfield, IL?

Anonymous said...

Will detroit Michigan get snow

AJ said...

How much snow do you think Valparaiso,Indiana will get at the time you answer?

Andrew said...

To all: The ensembles have shifted with the 12z run. This is not a good sign for those wanting snow.

That said, I cannot confidentially answer any questions of snow will fall. We are looking for other models' solutions, however.

AJ said...

Is this a sign this will be a false post and will not reach winter storm category?

Andrew said...

No.
I said that the most recent run of the GFS ensembles was not favorable. Keep in mind that the GFS Ensembles have been predicting for days now that this would happen- one run does not obliterate that trend. If the 18z ensembles and 0z ensembles do not show the trend, that is a different story.

Anonymous said...

will NC get snow from this storm?

Andrew said...

It depends on the track.

Gundeep said...

Will Toronto get snow or rain??

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.The NWS in Cleveland Ohio is calling for a mixture of rain/snow on Mon.Dec.19,2011.Would be the system that could eventually turn into a snowstorm depending on the track if everything pans out?

Anonymous said...

if NC was to get snow how much would you expect andrew?

Andrew said...

To all: the track depends on everything.
NC will not get snow out of this system. If there is a MAJOR cold blast and the system goes up the coast, there is a slim potential. Very slim.

Eddie s said...

Will this winter ever start in Detroit and if so when

AJ said...

At this time where do you think the track will be? Will it put heavy snow on northwest Indiana?