|12z runs of both|
We are leaning towards the GFS ENS right now, because the actual models do not fare well during a pattern change, which is currently starting. That said, it is best to go towards the ensembles.
Some notes on other 12z models as they come in...
12z NOGAPS is very similar to 12z GFS OP at hour 144, likely takes path shown on left image at the top.