Saturday, December 3, 2011

December 9-11 Potential Snow System (Great Lakes, Midwest Affected) (Updated 12/3)

The ECMWF is bringing back the idea of a December 9-12 snow system, but this time in the 9-11 timeframe. Below is a comparison of the 12z ECMWF December 1st model run and today's 12z ECMWF model run.

December 1st ECMWF Model Run, Valid December 11

December 3rd ECMWF Model Run, Valid December 10
Check out just how similar the model runs are with placement of the storm. There are some differences though, including storm strength and the amount of cold air available. Today's 12z ECMWF indicates much colder air will be available, but the storm will be weaker than what the Dec. 1 ECMWF model run showed. For those who are wondering, the GFS is not showing this prospect. But since the ECMWF has brought this idea back, I believe it warrants close monitoring, as trends like this ought to be closely followed.

14 comments:

Gundeep said...

Would it hit Toronto?

Andrew said...

Probably not. But you never know- Hour 168 can be tough for some models.

Anonymous said...

Would it hit Valparaiso,Indiana?

Andrew said...

If this verifies, yes.

AJ said...

WOW two possible snowstorms in 4 days!

rod mclane said...

HI ANDREW IF THIS STORM DOES COME TRUE BETWEEN THE 9-11 DEC. WHAT WOULD NORTHEAST IOWA WEATHER BE LIKE?? I'M THINKING IF THE LOW DOES TRACK (LIKE SHOWN) WE WOULD GET A GOOD DEAL OF SNOW AND WIND ---==AM I RIGHT??? P.S. I KNOW A LOT CAN CHANGE --BUT IF THIS 2ND MAP VERIFIED THAT WOULD B GOOD STORM FOR MY AREA CORRECT?? KEEP UP THE GREAT WORK THAT YOU DO LOVIN IT!!!

Andrew said...

Your area likely would get in on some sort of activity.

Anonymous said...

Would Detroit Michigan get hit

Andrew said...

Yes, but the question is what type of precipitation.

AJ said...

Is it possible that on DEC.12 there will be a snowstorm in parts of Indiana,because a lot of websites chow windy conditions with over 3 inches of snow?I know this outlook is only for the ninth to the eleventh and DEC.12 is eight days away but it seems that a lot of websites think there might be a snowstorm.Please respond as soon as yo can.I hope you can predict that far ahead and I hope you don't think I am sounding pushy.Thank you for all the good forecasting.

Andrew said...

AJ: Today's 18z GFS actually shows a big warm up for Indiana in that time frame. If you could provide links to those websites it would be appreciated. Thank you for the kind words.

AJ said...

I just checked back at those websites ad it changed to sunny.Do you think the model have changed little enough and if it cools down a little bit that it can or will change back?I hope it does because my area has supposed to have a lot of accumulating snow so far according to some websites and it hasn,t snowed heavier than a flurry.

Andrew said...

The models are somewhat turbulent at this time. If we have time we can issue a discussion addressing this.

AJ said...

I would very much appreciate you do that.