We don't have much to share with you today, other than the fact that the models are junk with the Dec. 20 storm. Winter forecast probably won't play out as expected, and we are debating a revision.
It's hilarious how you get down on your forecast for the ENTIRE winter because of one storm gone wrong. It hasn't even totally busted yet, plenty of time for it to change back to the way you want it. You said it yourself, we won't have a grip on this until Sunday at the earliest. Still plenty of time for you to get the big one!
Eddie: We will be coming out with a personalized winter forecast for Detroit from Dec. 21-23
Anonymous: I see fair reason to be discouraged: the pattern change should finally start taking effect in Mid-Late January, when the East Coast should begin its warm-up, rendering the situation 'too little too late'. However, this has indeed been a wild weather year, and someone is bound to get 'the big one'. ;)
Hello Andrew.This may be the season without a winter! But then again winter has not officially started.I don't blame you one bit about being discouraged over the models.I myself,am a TRUE snow lover.All we can really do is hope that the pattern changes very soon or we may not have a winter.Maybe this winter we just see a bunch of storms with rain and not snow,hopefully not.I myself,keep thinking snow!!!!!!!!!!!
Anonymous #1: The AO, in its negative phase, brings cold air to the Midwest as the polar vortex weakens and the cold air is released from it. The AO should start going negative as the stratosphere warms.
AJ: Until around Sunday, yes.
Anonymous #2: That is very true. However, sophisticated weather models help give us an understanding of what is to come through a very educated guess.
Hello Andrew.Let's hope that the LRC does repeat several times this winter.If you consider all the rain that we have had recently,if this would be in January and february and the conditions would be just right for snow.There would be several snowstorms.
no one has explain too me y the big noreaster never repeated from oct? if lrc is so great? guess what it not and it didnt. hand picking storms to the lrc is a load of crap and some thing too get people hitting sites .
The nor'easter DID repeat but the LRC isn't EXACTLY the same every time. The LRC is not handpicking random storms- that would be stupid. We watch for any signs that any certain atmospheric condition might repeat. It is a proven cycle. I will give you a lot of links on how the LRC ACTUALLY works and how it DID repeat later tonight.
Back on November 29, Fort Wayne, IN, saw its first snowstorm of the year, with heavy snow, thunder and lightning, and accumulations of around 5 or 6 inches. According to the LRC cycle this year of 46-48 days, it should return in early-mid January. Do you think it will return with enough cold air to cause another major snowstorm with even more snow. This same storm occurred in mid October as I remember it with days of heavy rain and high winds.
21 comments:
What do you think winter in Detroit be like
It's hilarious how you get down on your forecast for the ENTIRE winter because of one storm gone wrong. It hasn't even totally busted yet, plenty of time for it to change back to the way you want it. You said it yourself, we won't have a grip on this until Sunday at the earliest. Still plenty of time for you to get the big one!
Eddie: We will be coming out with a personalized winter forecast for Detroit from Dec. 21-23
Anonymous: I see fair reason to be discouraged: the pattern change should finally start taking effect in Mid-Late January, when the East Coast should begin its warm-up, rendering the situation 'too little too late'.
However, this has indeed been a wild weather year, and someone is bound to get 'the big one'. ;)
It is not hilarious it is maddening.
This is what winter storms do to me ;)
He has told me he likes winter storms.I am mad myself.
Hello Andrew.This may be the season without a winter! But then again winter has not officially started.I don't blame you one bit about being discouraged over the models.I myself,am a TRUE snow lover.All we can really do is hope that the pattern changes very soon or we may not have a winter.Maybe this winter we just see a bunch of storms with rain and not snow,hopefully not.I myself,keep thinking snow!!!!!!!!!!!
Mike: Meteorological winter started December 1st. I do not believe that the North US will go without a snowstorm. Winter is winter, after all.
When will nao switch over to negative and what does the AO do for Midwest/northeast during winter
Do you think we have a great possibility of the models changing back?
TO ALL!!!!!!!!!!!! THE MODELS DO NOT CONTROL THE WEATHER.Mother nature does.
Anonymous #1: The AO, in its negative phase, brings cold air to the Midwest as the polar vortex weakens and the cold air is released from it. The AO should start going negative as the stratosphere warms.
AJ: Until around Sunday, yes.
Anonymous #2: That is very true. However, sophisticated weather models help give us an understanding of what is to come through a very educated guess.
i guess this winter is a good thing if any thing it proved that the lrc is a theory only.
The LRC did repeat. It is not included in the teleconnections that are so bad this year. If anything, the LRC just keeps being re-proved.
Hello Andrew.Let's hope that the LRC does repeat several times this winter.If you consider all the rain that we have had recently,if this would be in January and february and the conditions would be just right for snow.There would be several snowstorms.
Will you issue another discussion any time soon?
Mike: The LRC is to repeat every 48 or so days, and with the pattern change coming, well, just make sure you have an extra shovel or two. ;)
no one has explain too me y the big noreaster never repeated from oct? if lrc is so great? guess what it not and it didnt. hand picking storms to the lrc is a load of crap and some thing too get people hitting sites .
The nor'easter DID repeat but the LRC isn't EXACTLY the same every time. The LRC is not handpicking random storms- that would be stupid. We watch for any signs that any certain atmospheric condition might repeat. It is a proven cycle. I will give you a lot of links on how the LRC ACTUALLY works and how it DID repeat later tonight.
Back on November 29, Fort Wayne, IN, saw its first snowstorm of the year, with heavy snow, thunder and lightning, and accumulations of around 5 or 6 inches. According to the LRC cycle this year of 46-48 days, it should return in early-mid January. Do you think it will return with enough cold air to cause another major snowstorm with even more snow.
This same storm occurred in mid October as I remember it with days of heavy rain and high winds.
Yes- i the pattern change to colder air is able to come through by the time the cycle repeats again, there would be more snow to deal with.
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