Thursday, December 8, 2011

Preliminary 2012-2013 Winter Projections

(Subject to extremely major change over the next many months)
This is a VERY PRELIMINARY forecast for the 2012-2013 Winter, as some are saying it could be one for the ages. Here are the factors. Bear in mind that this preliminary forecast will NOT contain our forecast as it is very far out.


November 14 ENSO forecast
Above is the forecast for the main ENSO region. Areas below the 0.5 line are classified as a La Nina, which we are currently in according to the graph at the very beginning. As we progress through the year of 2012, it looks like this Nina will fade out into neutral territory, which is neither an El Nino or La Nina, but rather a weak combination of both. This neutral territory is between +0.5 and -0.5 on the graph above. These forecasts indicate that a neutral winter is possible for the winter of 2012-2013. We are not going to go in-depth right now because this will change, but a neutral winter appears possible.


Solar activity is currently forecasted to drop down to very low levels over the next several years as the sun enters a 'hibernation' of sorts. There will be an unusually low number of sunspots, leading to slightly lower worldwide temperatures. This cycle, called Cycle 24, will slightly increase in the summer of 2012 before drastically bombing out in 2013. That said, 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 winters may be very cold, colder than average.


Some volcanoes have been erupting in 2011, and one we are closely watching has the potential to produce drastically colder temperatures for the world as well...if it erupts. If it does, the winter of 2012-2013 will very likely be colder than average for many areas around the world. There are many other factors involved, but this volcanic activity could be one of the bigger factors.

CPC Forecast for November 2012
Precipitation Forecast for November 2012

Temperature Forecast for November 2012


Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.Do you personally think that we will start to lean into a colder and snowier weather pattern come this january.

Andrew said...

The pattern change is coming.

Anonymous said...

Thank you for the insight on winter 2012-2013. Neutral is a very good chance. I am thinking weak/ blip of a El nino next year because of 2007-2008 La Nina & 2008-2009 La Nina after came El Nino 2009-2010 winter. There are many other factors to watch. Solar activity is suppose to plumit in the end of 2012 into 2013. Thanks again Andrew your friend Brad.

Anonymous said...

Yes I agree the change is coming in Mid-January.

Indndawg said...

Analogs are already coming in 09/10.

Bastardi and CFS already on board for a cooler summer in east and north and some kinda winter.

Anonymous said...


how do i make money predicting this silliness??


Andrew said...

Jim: Working hard, working daily, and being accurate. That's what I go off of.

Anonymous said...

Hi Andrew I was watching the channel 2 news for st.louis and our meteorologist said st.louis will not receive any snow do to el ninia is this true or false

mike said...

Jim do you think Illinois and Missouri will have a great winter like 1982