A mesoscale discussion has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for the potential for a tornado watch as a low pressure system ejects from the Southwest and moves east, or a slightly northeast direction. A cold front is in place, and with warm Gulf air being pulled north into the system, it can be expected that convective activity will be strong when the storms begin.
Water Vapor Imagery
The storms may actually be beginning fairly soon. Water vapor imagery is indicating small single-celled clusters of intense concentrations of water vapor. These concentrations appear to be updrafts, and thunderstorms should form quite soon in that area and down farther south as the updrafts mature into severe storms. However, the sounding from the KS/OK border indicates an unfavorable environment for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, which is likely why the mesoscale discussion was kept south into Texas. When that warm Gulf air collides with the dry air (red and orange), severe thunderstorms are quick to form. It should be noted that there are updraft signatures on visible satellite imagery.