Sunday, January 15, 2012

January 19-22 Potential Major Snow Event (Great Lakes, Midwest Affected)

0z ECMWF on Jan. 21
The latest 0z ECMWF is showing a widespread snow event throughout the Great Lakes and Midwest for the January 19-22 period. I find this interesting because the ECMWF has been showing something similar to a snowstorm like above for at least the past 2 runs. Here's the old 12z run from yesterday.
January 20th Snowfall
January 21 Snowfall
The 12z ECMWF has the snowfall a bit further south than the 0z ECMWF, but the fact that they have snow in very similar places is very encouraging.
So here's our map:

41 comments:

Kyle said...

Do you think it is possible for one plowable snowfall to central Indiana this year?

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.Shouldn't there be snow further south into Ohio with this track?If the low tracks south through the ohio river,the upper great lakes would probably not get any snow at all and parts of the midwest wouldn't either.Just a thought.

Anonymous said...

Are you predicting over 12" of snow.That would be major!!!!!!

Andrew said...

Kyle: There is definitely the potential.

Mike: No- there is a problem with the proximity of the cold air with this system.

Anonymous: 'Major' is considered to be 4 inches and above- 12 inches is more like a significant snowfall.

Mike Paulocak said...

Every system this year has had a lack of cold air.The rest probably will also.Winter is pretty much over for the Ohio area snowfall wise.We will continue seeing cold shots of air,but lacking snowfall.I can see a pattern that's not going to change.This happened back in the winter of 1997-1998 for Ohio.I remember it well.

Mike Paulocsak said...

It's supposed to get close to 50 degrees next sunday in Ohio.I can see a pattern that keeps happening,and it's probably not going to change at all this winter regardless what the models say!!

Anonymous said...

when will we get more certain about this storm. hear in toronto ontatio they are calling for 5cm of snow wich is only 2 inches are you expecting maby more than that? and in the long range forcast after thursday for the rest of jan the temps wont get below freezing

Anonymous said...

So.will southern Mn see snow with this?

Andrew said...

Anonymous #1: Certainty will increase in the next couple days.

Anonymous #2: Possibly, but chances aren't extraordinarily high.

Anonymous said...

As I said about 10 days ago, I really doubt there will be pattern change. How is your "pattern change to colder and snowier" in the Plains and Ohio Valley in Mid to late January? Today is January 15, meaning mid January and we clearly see nothing is going on. At least not anywhere south of Chicago to Detroit regions, where the cold air extended. AFD's are mentioning temps close to 70 degrees in the Missouri Valley Region. This winter sucks and we gotta move on. Chicago still has chances, but most people that visit this site live further south. Looking forward to next winter and I hope this winter taught us not to wishcast because we are seeing the disappointment in the Ohio Valley now. I had serious doubts about a pattern change earlier, so I am not too dissapointed seeing how the rest of this winter will evolve.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hey anonymous i agree.But there's no reason to get all upset.I live in Ohio,i figured the pattern would never change myself whehn they predicted it.It was always 10 more days,10 more days.This just proves that we cannot let weather models predict our weather.What i'm trying to say is that the models are not accurate at all this year.Mother nature controls the weather,not the MODELS.Some people think different.Fifty degrees plus next week in Ohio.

Anonymous said...

I think the whole problem here is we focus on the LONG TERM weather way too much!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Let's focus on the short term.Trying to predict a long term forecast is like trying to shovel smoke!!!

Mike Paulocsak said...

I would say based on current conditions that we are experiencing,winter will be mostly confined to the chicago area east to detroit and points due north.Everyone else is probably done with winter.This includes the Ohio Valley,Mid-atlantic,and northeast.Things can and do change.But it's going to take alot of factors to do so.

Anonymous said...

just face the fact last year was the last winter and a good winter will probably never happen again are new seasons are spring and summer we will probly see only little snow falls 5 inch or less over the next couple years

Anonymous said...

Spring will be EXTREMELY early this year.I would say mid Feb. spring will arrive

Aran said...

You can't say Chicago will have a winter.They are supposed have thunderstorms at night on the 22 and at day on the 23.I live there practically.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Same here ARAN JACOBS.I would say spring is around the corner.Like for instance in Feb.

Aran said...

I agree.I wrote that on my blog.

Andrew said...

Okay everyone, stop going to extremes and let's all take a deep breath. This is just a bad winter. It, IN NO WAY, means that we may get a warm spring very soon. I believe that spring will be cold, because at some point the atmosphere has to reach equilibrium. Aran, it is very common for thunderstorms to happen during the winter. It's still 7 days out- I wouldn't trust that at all.

Anonymous said...

Gave up on the pattern change? No more wishcasting next year.

Anonymous said...

Hey anonymous whatever you say!!!!!!!!!!!!! Wait till mid feb.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

I see a big storm in feb.Just you wait and see.

Andrew said...

Anonymous #1: I never said I gave up on the pattern change. There are still signs it could change, just not as strong as they once were. And this is not wishcasting- this is attempting to decipher the ever changing atmosphere.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.I have been hearing from sources that there could be a major storm next week sometime.Could this be true or just another hype for a snowstorm to get everyone excited?

Aran said...

Mike, I heard that too.

Andrew said...

The ECMWF is showing a storm for the Plains.

Anonymous said...

Im going to laugh so hard when winter come back so hard people wont beable to handle it. all you people that gave up are going to wake up one morning with sub-zero temperatures and 2 feet of snow. all the people that gave up on it your just pissing mother nature off just wait!!

Mike Paulocsak said...

Looks like Ohio will miss out again!!!!!

Aran said...

I didn't say I gave up on winter.I said it is not common for thunderstorms in mid-January in Chicago.

Mike Paulocsa said...

I HAVE BEEN SAYING THAT ALL LONG.EVERYONE HERE IS LOCKED ONTO THE MODELS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! COMPUTERS DO NOT MAKE THE WEATHER HAPPEN,ONLY PREDICT!!!!!!!! MOTHER NATURE DOES MAKE THE WEATHER HAPPEN!!!!!!!!

Mike Paulocsak said...

I agree ARAN JACOBS.Your right.I never gave up either.

Andrew said...

Anonymous: I could see that scenario playing out...

Mike: No one here is locked on the models. That's what the more dismal forecasters do. I was simply saying that a model was showing a storm- no agreement or disagreement. And for the record, the models were made to help predictions- and they are the partial base of modern day forecasting.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew.If you don't want me to post anymore.Fine i won't.

Mike Pauloccsak said...

Hello Andrew.I agree 100% and beyond that the models are a way of forecasting today.I was trying to say that if one shows a storm that doesn't mean that it's going to happen.That's all i was trying to say.I hope you understand.Thanks.

Andrew said...

Mike: I completely understand and share the same feelings about it as you do.I apologize if my views were not communicated correctly. I guess the whole no-winter spell is getting to my head.

MIKE PAULOCSAK said...

HELLO ANDREW.THANKS FOR UNDERSTANDING.LIKE I MENTIONED BEFORE,NO MATTER HOW THE WINTER ENDS UP,I'LL BE HERE YOU CAN COUNT ON THAT.IN FACT,IF YOUR STILL HERE NEXT WINTER AT THIS SITE,I'LL BE HERE ALSO.I STILL BELIEVE MYSELF THAT WINTER WILL GET INTO GEAR.I HOPE YOU FEEL THE SAME.

MIKE PAULOCSAK said...

HELLO ANDREW.THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR SNOW THIS SEASON.

Aran said...

Yes there is.

Andrew said...

There is indeed a lot of snow left to go around. I personally have a good feeling that your area will get snow, Mike.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew & Aran.Something is bound to happen in Feb.and Mar.It's rare for us not to see a few big storms in a winter!

Andrew said...

Mike: I agree- that's why I think the East will get their share come FEB