Saturday, October 29, 2011

Snow Falling in Northeast; Totals Look to Move Above 1 foot

Intellicast Radar
Snow is currently falling over the Northeast as a strong low pressure system progresses along, just outside the coast. Rain is currently more prevalent over the Virginia area, something we were surprised at, as we expected more snow coverage in that area. This system will continue to move along and gain strength. Eventually, a changeover to all snow will occur, and it looks like that changeover will be a crucial factor in totals.
The models continue to spit out accumulations well over a foot for many areas. Here's the suite of models for the northeast:
10z HRRR Model 

6z GFS Model

6z NAM model

All 3 models have different solutions to this snowstorm, but in the end we do have to choose which one will be right. On the top we see the new HRRR model run. The HRRR is a short range model. The HRRR indicates widespread areas of 12-18 inches of snow, with very isolated totals up to 24 inches. This appears to be a fairly good solution, but may be a bit too close to the coast. That does remain to be seen, however.
The GFS has been conservative compared to the NAM for a while now, and we feel that the placement of snowfall is correct; not the amounts. We do feel that the NAM/HRRR have a very similar solution, and since the HRRR is a short range model and has just come in with new data, we believe snowfall totals should be around the NAM/HRRR totals.

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