My confidence level on this storm is very low.
As of right now, the GFS Ensembles are thinking that the storm may happen, but may not be as strong as shown yesterday.
I have nothing else to say. I find this storm to be too long range and too dicey to catch my interest just yet.
If you have questions about if your area will get hit, you can ask them in the comments below, but don't expect me to give a specific, confident answer.
My thoughts as best as I can put them-
-Rain for the Ohio Valley
-Possible backside snows for the western Great Lakes
-Any major snow accumulation would hit far north Ohio and North Indiana.
As of right now, the GFS Ensembles are thinking that the storm may happen, but may not be as strong as shown yesterday.
I have nothing else to say. I find this storm to be too long range and too dicey to catch my interest just yet.
If you have questions about if your area will get hit, you can ask them in the comments below, but don't expect me to give a specific, confident answer.
My thoughts as best as I can put them-
-Rain for the Ohio Valley
-Possible backside snows for the western Great Lakes
-Any major snow accumulation would hit far north Ohio and North Indiana.
13 comments:
So do you think Valparaiso Indiana will be just out of the major snow accumulation place?
If this event ends up happening, possibly. We will have to see.
http://www.cpc.ncep.
noaa.gov/products/precip/
CWlink/MJO/block.shtml
I have a question andrew how do you read the blocking from this site and where does it have to be for blocking to start
THANK YOU
Stronger values closest to the chart would mean stronger blocking in the latest timeframe. You can move the 180 number on the chart to the 180 E and work with coordinating the other numbers to their respective places as shown on the chart. Basically, you are moving the row of coordinate points and putting them back in the same order on the bottom chart.
For example, as you see the strong blocking index value just to the left of 180, there is a strong blocking ridge just to the left of the 180 E vertical line on the bottom chart.
The models are doing dreadful. Like at hour 302 on the 6z GFS a WONDERFUL BLIZZARD for the EAST! The 12z nothing but cold air! ZERO model consistency.
when will charlotte nc see some snow?
I have never been so frustrated with the GFS and Euro before. Run after run of a different solution. Something tells me that these models are showing us that the pattern is about to go ballistic. I do not trust 1 model past 3 days! Andrew, I hope you are doing well and I would like to say how much I appreciate what you do. Have you seen the hope storm near Sunday? If only the NAO was neutral I would buy the senario of it being close enough and cold enough for an I95 rescue operation. I am not going to write anything off yet. With the recent stratospheric warming the AO will just get pushed into negative land. Well done with The Weather Centre! I have gone from anonymous to Eastern wx. Oh I am not the annoying person.
Do areas north of U.S. Highway 30 in Northwest Ohio look probable to get heavy snow accumulations? Especially near Fort Wayne? FYI, strong blocking over the last several days has shown up over the arctic and Greenland. The CPC observation graph shows that the AO is approaching moderately negative territory as we speak. I would not doubt that the AO approaches strongly negative territory over the next several days and weeks, causing at the same time the NAO to go negative. What kind of an effect do you think this would have on the storm possibility next week?
Andrew thanks for answering my question and the link earlier does it show blocking starting up over greenland and negative nao.... And one more thing What is better for snow in detroit Negative AO or negative NAO
Thank You
Eddie, blocking has been hinted by the Gfs. Both a negative NAO and AO will give Detroit snow and cold. Even with one of these indices negative your chances of snow increase in winter. Andrew, I hope you do not mind me answering questions. After all it is YOUR blog and YOU have the right to do what you want with it. If you do not want me answering questions PLEASE let me know. I will not be offended. You do a very good job with running this site! Thanks a lot for the time and effort you put in.
Anonymous #1: I'm not surprised as hour 302 is very long range, but these models have definitely been worse than usual recently.
Anonymous #2: February or bust.
Eastern WX: Yes- something I have learned is that the models are absolutely HORRIBLE right before/during a pattern change, so this may be the time. I am doing well- I hope you are doing well also.
Joshua: A stronger -AO would greatly increase the chances of cold air and snow shooting into the US. If this storm were to verify, NW Ohio would get snow.
Eddie: Unfortunately the blocking is not over Greenland just yet. And both a -AO and -NAO are good for detroit.
Eastern WX: I do not mind at all.
I think we lost the storm found another one though.
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