Tuesday, January 31, 2012

February 2-6 Major Snowstorm Discussion **UPDATED TODAY**

We have a lot to discuss, so let's get down to it.

12z GFS ENS. Hour 120
12z GFS ENS. Hour 132
12z GFS ENS. Hour 144
I think we are close enough to the storm's occurrence to stop using the ensembles and start using the models themselves. We will post on them, anyways. The GFS ENS are projecting the snow to fall in the Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. I'm thinking that the Plains snowfall looks to be a good bet, with a strip of snow into the Midwest. The Ohio Valley has yet to be worked out. Right now, looking at the 12z GFS, it shows snow hitting the Plains and midwest, but not the Ohio Valley. See below.
I'm thinking that this snowfall forecast looks like a good solution. It shows a snowstorm for the Plains and a strip of 6-12 inches of snow into the Midwest. But there are things that have to be looked at to confirm this.

The PNA forecasts indicate a strong PNA developing as the storm is starting to form. This could be a problem, as it is possible the ridge forms when the storm is already past the area where the PNA ridge forms. In that scenario, a Northeast storm scenario would look to be unlikely, as a +PNA directs the jet stream to the Northeast, but cannot bring this storm there if it is already in the Plains after the PNA forms.

Precipitation Patterns with MJO phases
The MJO is projected to move into a strong period of Phases 6 and 7. Phase 6 strongly favors above normal precipitation in the Great Lakes and Midwest into parts of the Ohio Valley and South Central US, leading me to think that a Phase 6 MJO develops a Southeast Ridge to divert the storm towards the upper Northeast and Ohio Valley, therefore giving precipitation to the Midwest. Phase 7 eases off the ridge and precipitation, but still shows above normal precip anomalies in the Midwest and Plains.

Model Diagnosis
Will not be using UKMET/ECMWF/GEM in my forecast as they have been inconsistent and are not finding a solution. Prefer GFS out of the most consistency I have seen. Eventually, a SREF blend may be preferred, especially today as verification at hour 72 forecasts can be actually very good.

In my opinion, the +PNA should come too late for the storm system to be diverted into the Northeast. That said, an increasingly strong MJO Phase 6 would favor the storm to move into the Plains if it cannot travel along the +PNA jet stream that goes through the South. As of now, I see the storm moving into the Plains and subsequently being pushed east into the nation's Midsection, much like the ECMWF Ensembles have been showing. Checking out the HPC, I'm finding drastically increased precipitation forecasts in the Plains, leading me to think that confidence in a Plains solution has grown. The CMC model is further north than the GFS and will have to be watched.

MY THOUGHTS
Over 6 inches of snow is very well possible in the Plains into the Midwest, with the west central Plains in the big target zone. We outlined a lower confidence area in the event that the storm ends up farther south than anticipated. The low pressure system is going to be moving through Oklahoma and kentucky before speeding offshore.

Side notes:
*Several upcoming model runs will be equipped with observation data from specialized airplane flights that drop items recording data in the storm-to-be that is then ingested into a certain model run (typically the 0z or 12z suites).

Any questions may be asked below.
And for the record, I do not expect this solution to change dramatically.
-Andrew

28 comments:

Anonymous said...

When is the next BIG storm after this going to occur?This will not put down any snow in the ov ond northeast.Any others in the nearest future?

Wally said...

Map look's like 6 inches for Huntley in Northern Illinois. So what day are we looking at and will it be over 6 inches.

c-BIV said...

for the record...this winter has been as depressing here in Louisville, KY as any winter I have ever been through. 1.8" for the yearly total. Southeast Ridge has DOMINATED anything that has been thrown its way. If only half of the precip that we have had since Dec. would have fallen as snow, we would have well over 3 feet of the white stuff by now. Oh well...just a bunch of soggy brown yards instead.

Jen from toledo said...

hi andrew....by looking at the last model/photo you posted, is it true that toledo, ohio...will NOT be getting any snowfall amounts? thanks for the extensive update andrew...

Anonymous said...

Anonymous.I personally believe myself that there will not be any snowstorms that will affect the Ohio Valley,Mid-Atlantic,and the Northeast the rest of this winter.I would say the west of this region is where all the storms will happen!!Too many things have to change for the Ohio valley,mid-atlantic and northeast to get any major snows Just don't see it!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Winter is done for the Ohio Valley.No major snows for the Ohio valley this winter!!!!!!

Jeremy Peterson said...

I like that Iowa band. Now if only the temps will work for us.

roadruner said...

CRAP SAME OLD SONG NOTHING FOR KANSAS CITY AGAIN.Iam A detective here in town and its been so warm that the perps have come out of the wood work we need OO I NEED the GARBAGE to slow down. with Cold air and Heavy snow the PERPS stay in side. But no really this poor town has been missed over and over again this has got to stop PLEASE. Is there A,N,Y, chance for big time cold and snow this week end or this month SO TIRED of the same old stuff NOTHING

Anonymous said...

Ughhhhhh. The winter for Chicago and Detroit is turning out to be very good, especially if they get this storm. Further south in Mississippi Valley and Ohio Vally, nothing. So sick of storm after storm hitting Chicago. They have got to be the luckiest city in the Midwest for snow the past 3 winters. They get hit by everything.

Vlad said...

Knew the ensembles were crap. Don't look at those Andrew, they are never right. Told you like 2 days ago. They were just wishcasting a major winter storm as far south as boot heel of Missouri. No way lol. Just stick to operation run of models.

Anonymous said...

The rest of the winter will be in Chicago northward.Winter is done everywhere else.This is a true statement.

Anonymous said...

I agree anonymous.Winter is done except for Chicago!!!!!!

Eddie said...

To anonymous who said detroit is having a good winter WRONG we have only had 15 inches of snow and our biggest storm has been 3 inches so it pretty bad

Joshua Steiner said...

When will this snow event hit? And will it the Fort Wayne area.

mike paulocsak said...

Hi Eddie.I agree.Detroit is very snowless this winter.I myself in Ohio have only received about seven inches.

Anonymous said...

As usual no snow for south central Minnesota. Could this storm move north 100 miles? Thx

Anonymous said...

Andrew is probably happy about the upcoming storm.He's going to get heavy snow.He doesn't care if anyone else gets any!!

mike paulocsak said...

He Andrew.What do you think the future looks for snows in the Ohio Valley the rest of the winter?This one will miss us.

Anonymous said...

Any pattern change updates?

Anonymous said...

Andrew.Do you believe in ground hog's day?Or is it an old wives tale?

Anonymous said...

Your predictions are always right on so looking forward to this next storm

ERN WX said...

Andrew, that is an excellent post! You are very informative as always. It now looks like this will be a midwest storm. I am sad that it doesn't look like it will be abig one for the Ohio Valley and Northeast, but with the way the models have been handling this storm it still is POSSIBLE [NOT DEFINITE] that the storm is further southeast. I like how you are handling this storm. A piece of energy may redevelop off the east coast and MAY give the Middle Atlantic some snow [if you trust the 18z Gfs]. This would occur Sunday/ Monday. What do you think about it, Andrew? I certainly would appreciate you giving your opinion on it redeveloping off the coast. Mike, I hope this storm becomes more favorable for your area. I know how bad this lack of snow has been for you. I am experiencing it to. I still think the Ohio Valley and Northeast will get at least one big one this year. I have been really checking into a storm that has been showing up for next Saturday. I hope we all get some soon! With the way the PNA AND AO look, I can't see how the Ohio Valley and Northeast don't get something soon. Andrew, I hope you are feeling well and I want to thank you for the work you do. Congratulations on 200 fans on facebook!

Anonymous said...

What about the big cities on the I95 corridor? Do you only forecast for the Midwest?

Wally said...

It must be pick on Chicago day. But the fact is, Chicago so far this winter has had only 7 day's with an inch or more of snow and has only received something like 13.9 inches of snow for the season. The big storm last year dropped about 18 inches and Chicago had I think it was 5 feet (60 inches) for the year. For those who love winter, Chicago too is hurting

Anonymous said...

You guys have to be kidding. Chicago and Detroit are very lucky to have the winter they have gotten to other places. Even Ohio. Some places to my west like in KC have gotten 0.4 inches the whole year! 0.4! Thats like 2% of average. Chicago and Detroit have at least somewhere like 30-50% I think. So I don't want to hear it. Kansas and Missouri got nothing this winter.

Anonymous said...

Hey Andrew.Straighten this mess of complaing out please.Everyone is hurting for snow.Am I right Andrew?

Andrew said...

Anonymous #1: That is yet to be seen.

Wally: Exact snow remains yet to be seen, but it will be between February 2-6.

c-BIV: The winter has been bad for everyone.

Jen: For now, it looks that way.

Anonymous #2: That is climatologically unfavorable. While this winter has been anything but ordinary, I still think that the Northeast will get a good snow in.

Roadruner: There is a chance the polar vortex could slide into Canada and unleash brutal cold air.

Anonymous #3: Chicago has had under a foot of snow when their typical winter snowfall is around 40 inches. No one in the nation is doing 'good'.

Vlad: If there's a long range storm you can expect me to go to the ensembles first.

Anonymous #4 and #5: Highly disagree.

Joshua: February 2-6. Probably not Indiana.

Anonymous: Likely not into Minnesota at this point.

Anonymous #6: I am not going to get heavy snow out of this storm, and find it dismal for someone to think that I don't care. I hope every single winter weather lover gets a huge snowstorm all to themselves. I'm just the forecaster. Do I enjoy snow? You bet. Do I care about other's snowfall droughts? Yep.

Mike: I find it hard to believe your area will go without a snowstorm, especially if the polar vortex is displaced into Canada.

Anonymous #7: We will come out with one after this storm blows through.

Anonymous #8: I find it to be an old wives tale. But hey- i'm willing to believe 6 more weeks of winter ;)

Eastern WX: The way the storm is moving I am not particularly inclined to believe too much, but a dusting to a couple inches is possible in some spots.

Anonymous #9: No- I forecast for the nation. It just so happens that this storm is impacting the Plains and Midwest. I95 should be snowless. Maybe some snow in the far Northeast section of I95, but thats about it.

Anonymous #10: Compared to everyone else, yes, Chicago and Detroit have been relatively 'good' this winter. Compared to averages, both are WAY below average.

Anonymous #11: You are correct.

mike paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.Do you see a outbreak of cold weather next week on?