Wednesday, January 18, 2012

January 19-22 Potentially Significant Snow Event

We are predicting a potentially significant snowstorm to take place for the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast. Right now, is is possible that 6-10 inches of snow may fall in the Lower Great Lakes as well as the Northeast. The big snows will be falling from the Dakota into the Lower Great Lakes, as well as the Eastern Lakes and the Northeast.
There is also a concern for icing, where up to 0.10 inches of ice may fall in the Ohio Valley and parts of the nation's Midsection. These ice amounts may rise going into tomorrow.

We have seen forecasts from 2 inches to 10 inches. These heavily depend on snow ratios, which could be as high as 20:1 (very fluffy snow).
The ECMWF keeps the snow farther north than what is shown here, but we are going to stick with the GFS and other models.

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

That's Awesome! Let it Snow!!!

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.Looks like i better fire up the generator.I'm going to get a HUGE icestorm according to this map.Trees will be snapping,lines will be falling,and power poles will be crashing.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi.Andrew.My local forecast from the Cleveland NWS doesn't mention ice at all.I'm confused.They mention mostly snow.I would say the ice would be mostly confined to central and southern ohio.Just a thought.

Andrew said...

Mike: It will not be a huge ice storm. We do have the ice potential in Central/Southern OH on our map. However, the entire state of OH is at risk for icing.

LJ said...

Is the snow ratio 20 for Belvidere, IL for this storm system? Thanks.

Andrew said...

There are some who are saying 20:1 ratios, but I wouldn't settle on one ratio just yet.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.The local news forecasterds are saying that there is a likely hood of winter storm watches going up for the friday thru saturday storm for my area for heavy snow no ice.I myself know that the weather services only have the jurisdiction to do so.They usually issue them 24-36 hours before the storm wouldf take place.They are saying snowfall totals exceding 6" for my area.I understand the system will be ejecting out of the southwest.Do you see ample gulf moisture funneling into this system?

LJ said...

Ok. Thanks Andrew. Could you tell me when you decide on one ratio? Thanks again.

Andrew said...

Mike: Yes, but with the Gulf moisture also comes the risk of a big dry slot.

LJ: The Chicago NWS Office is saying 10-12:1 ratios.

Mike Paulocsak said...

HI Andrew.I spelled forecasters wrong in my previous post.I was typing way too fast.Sorry.

Mike Paulocsa said...

Hi Andrew.Tell me about it.Dry slots basically eat snowstorms up.I had several storms in the past ruined by dry slots.

Kyle said...

Wish tv in central Indiana is saying only rain with this storm. Please tell me they are wrong!

Anonymous said...

Folks need to watch this system carefully. This has the potential to be a major ice and snow maker. As for the storm going further south that possibility is going down. Still, anyone north of the Mason- Dixon line should carefully watch this. A concern is that the cold air holds better than most models currently show. This would result in the potential for a major ice storm for cities like Phi, Lancaster Pa, and cities near the low track. Stay tuned to The Weather Centre. Andrew will keep us updated on this situation. The pattern is clearly changing before our eyes. More statospheric warming is occurring!!! Andrew and Henry, I think you are winning, in regards to the pattern change. Keep up the good work!!!

Anonymous said...

im in hamilton ontario the local weather said the west end of lake ontario could get more snow due to lake enhancement from the winds is that possible and how much snow i heard 1-2 inchs total

Anonymous said...

It will depend on where the snow bands setup. Accums with LES are highly variable.

Aran said...

Please watch this storm.Winter storm watches have been issued in some areas for this storm.

Andrew said...

Kyle: I could see a mix or some ice possible.

Anonymous #1: Thank you very much for those kind words. Yes, this will be a dangerous form and we will be updating on it around 12:30 this afternoon (CST).

Anonymous #2: Very true. That's why we use the short range models to try and detect localized banding.

Aran: We are closely monitoring it.