Monday, January 16, 2012

Pattern Change Update 1/16/12

I've about had enough with these models predicting the warmth to continue- even if they may be right.
I think it's time we issue a forecast using our own instinct, not using the long range models as a crutch.

FEBRUARY---

February will see colder shots enter the country with spots of snow frequently interrupting. As the polar vortex becomes more and more unstable, as shown by the not-fully connected vortex as well as erratic PV (potential vorticity) movements. I can very well see snowstorms come though the East US- it's a favorable outcome based on the weakening Nina, unstable VP (polar vortex)/PV, and the Alaskan vortex. It is currently displaced, thus the active storm track. But it is a very encouraging sign to see it be able to be displaced.

MARCH---

March will be THE cold month for spring. At this point, the atmosphere will have to go ballistic. With the stratosphere in cahoots, the VP/PV all unorganized, the La Nina possibly fading into neutral or El Nino conditions, an atmospheric coup into spring will throw off everything. I'm expecting a VERY active storm track, with severe weather abound as this huge mash of messed up indices tries to figure itself out. The mountains will see their snowfall when the Pacific gets ramped up in the midst of this big jumble.

For both February and March, i am using 2 pieces I have come to wonder if they can be related to weather:
I. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction.
II. Everything attempts to reach equilibrium.

Using these two theories and applying them to weather would make for a revolutionary change in FEB/MAR. But that would be if everything is unequal. Climatology has nothing on the Pacific and Arctic. You may think this winter has not been equal (climatologically, yes), but up in the stratosphere and in Alaska, factors have been working and have attained a level of equilibrium that just so happened to be favorable for warm temperatures. If we can get a stratospheric warming or a permanent displacement of the Alaskan Low, I might as well batten down the hatches, because the snow will come and make itself known in that scenario.

So there you have it- my forecast for the rest of winter, totally unassisted by weather models.

27 comments:

Anonymous said...

so dose this mean nyc is going to be snowstorms this winter

Anonymous said...

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

Andrew said...

Anonymous #1: There is probably going to be some snow event.

Anonymous #2: What are you trying to convey? I cannot access the link for some reason.

Anonymous said...

I am a different anonymous, but anonymous number two failed to type the full address. The last part is seasonalclimateoutLOOK. Anyway, when you say severe weather abound, do you mean severe thunderstorms or snowstorms? Thanks!

Andrew said...

Severe thunderstorms and possibly severe snowstorms. The atmosphere may flip out.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.Did you find that link?I did.There is alot of info.there.If you found it,whats it mean?

Andrew said...

The positive daily values mean a La Nina.
There is still a chance the Nina could go to Nino- SOI is much different than the ENSO.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.Which would provide more snowstorms?I always thought the la nina would in ohio.Or is it the el nino?

Anonymous said...

Andrew, does this mean Baltimore has a good shot at seeing a 6"+ inch snowstorm in Feb/March? When do you believe it may occur?

Andrew said...

Mike: Usually it is a La Nina, but certain conditions of an El Nino can give the Ohio Valley a snowy season.

Anonymous: I'm afraid I cannot give an exact date, but mid FEB might give some snow.

Anonymous said...

hmmm gutsy! i like it!

Anonymous said...

charlotte nc in for some of this?how much snow?and would we have colder temps

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.Either one can.Thanks.Hopefully it does bring snowy weather!

Anonymous said...

I am new to this site. I do enjoy reading your thoughts on the weather.I do wonder what your thoughts are on the old farmers almanac.I live in a part of indiana that they classify as the lower lakes region. they are calling for two snowstorms in jan. between the dates of 18-23 for one and 24-31 for the other.Iwas wondering if you think this is possable and how reliable you think the almanac is on thier long range forcasting.

Aran said...

What town do you live in because I live in the portion of Indiana that they call the lower lakes too.

Anonymous said...

Anderson

Andrew said...

Anonymous #1: Charlotte would probably get at least 5 inches of snow. Cold air would also come.

Anonymous #2: I don't know how they do it, but their forecasts have successfully verified at points this year, so I would watch for those systems. I'm not saying it will happen, but they are possible.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Aran Jacobs.Anderson is in Madison county Indiana.Eastern Indiana.

Aran said...

I know. I don't live there currently.I used to live there.

Anonymous said...

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

Anonymous said...

http://www.longpaddock.
qld.gov.
au/seasonalclimate
outlook/
southernoscillationindex
/30daysoivalues/

copy and paste sorry if it does not show up right

Anonymous said...

In regards to the farmers almanacs accuracy, I think the adage is that everybody can pick a five state region, give it a seven state period, and predict the weather seventeen years in advance.

Anonymous said...

Theres a lot of talk about some good snows north of I-70 & I-80. Any chance DC is going to become part of the snows as well? Haven't had/heard much at all...

Andrew said...

Anonymous #1: The SOI's forecasting ability is lessened compared to the ENSO actual temperatures.

Anonymous #3: There is indeed a chance for some snows for your area.

Anonymous said...

how may snow storms would charlotte nc have in feb./march???

Anonymous said...

Erotic PV Movements?

Andrew said...

Anonymous #1: We cannot predict that.

Anonymous #2: Volatile.