Thursday, February 2, 2012

February 2-6 Significant Snowstorm Discussion (2/2/12)

This is a formal discussion and not a briefing.
No graphics will be provided.

The Weather Centre
Winter Weather Message
Concerning: Feb. 2-6 Winter Storm
Level of Concern: High
4:00 PM CST

Discussion. . .
Expecting strong storm system to impact the West Plains in the next few days, bringing with it significant snowfall and rain. This discussion concerns the snowfall aspect.
Currently seeing a spinning motion on infrared imagery, indicating the presence of the storm system in question. The storm system is currently in the Wyoming/Colorado vicinity and should begin producing snow shortly, if not already. 
Infrared looping indicating a burst of precipitation possible in far west Kansas. Do feel that this is the beginning of the storm system's rapid strengthening, as the very distinct spinning motion on satellite loops is showing the eagerness to pull any air into itself. 
It looks like the big snows are beginning now for those areas now under a Blizzard Warning, including northwest Kansas, southwest Nebraska and east Colorado.These big snows are indicated by the aforementioned burst of precipitation on infrared. As the system begins to move into the Plains. . .feel that this is the beginning of a long night tonight and day tomorrow of snow.
Recent GFS trends have really backed off snowfall totals in Iowa, with the 'winners' in Iowa receiving maximum 4 inches. The NAM, known to overdo snowfall amounts, is putting out a good 6 inches in or near Iowa. After recent trends. . .do feel that GFS is on a right but unfortunate track following our big snowstorm prediction. This is a traditional February Curveball, with many more sure to come.
Have seen several short range models indicate the potential for up to a foot of snow in KS/NE. Feel that those amounts are close to what the totals should be, as the storm is starting now even as the system itself has not exactly emerged into the Plains just yet.

Further Concerns. . .
System does not appear to currently have a defined tilt. However. . .have noted in recent 500mb observations that the system is pushing for a negative tilt. If a neg. tilt is to arise. . .thundersnow would be likely, considering the amount of Gulf air available to the system as well as the negative tilt indicating maturity of the system.
Temperatures currently in the 30 degree corridor for west Kansas. Main concern with this is potential flash freeze in the event rain falls first before the snow in KS. Also concerned of the changeover and how much sleet/freezing rain may fall. . .but that is not a huge concern ATTM. Colorado is sitting pretty with temperatures in the 20s in the mountains. However. . .those in the lower elevations of CO are on the lower end of the 30 degree corridor. Think that concern for an icy changeover is lessened as temperatures should be falling soon, if not already.

Next Update. . .7:00 PM CST
Questions can be asked below.


Aran said...

So not much for my area?

Anonymous said...

Is a shift possible and how much and to where?

Anonymous said...

How much snow for Sterling Colorado.This should be a HUMUNGOUS amount!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

How much snow for McCook Nebraska?

Anonymous said...

I don't really like this new method of giving discussions in this weird font with incomplete sentences. It makes you harder to understand. I know that it looks cool and makes your blog look like an SPC update, but I think you should go back to what you normally do!

Anonymous said...

When could be the next "BIG ONE" for the Ohio Valley and the Northeast.Thanks.Or is this winter over for this region.I'm thinking it's done.

Andrew said...

Aran: No.

Anonymous: Unlikely at this point.

Anonymous #2: Up to 2 feet.

Anonymous #3: Up to 17 inches, depending on your location relative to the Interstate.

Anonymous #4: Thank you for speaking up.

Anonymous #5: We will publish something after this storm blows over.

mike paulocsak said...

Hey Andrew.I was just chatting with my local weather man on out of Cleveland.I asked him if the Ohio area could get a panhandle hook.He said we have to watch out for late Feb./early Mar.What are your thoughts on this?Thanks.

roadruner said...

Just got back from patrol today and the buzz around town is the RAIN we need it bad. We are to get ALOT OF RAIN while out on patrol I,ll keep you up to date in the noon hr Keep it up Andrew ! Still no snow. BUT RAIN IS GOOD 2 inches poss. :)

mike paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.This goes with my previous post.He said the EURO is is hinting to a hooker storm for the Ohio Valley next weekend.He says it's suggesting a general 6"-8" over northern and eastern Ohio.

mike paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew.Ignore the post above this one i posted.This is the system that was supposed to get the Ohio Valley if it moved properly this week.I got too excited i guess.Sorry.