Monday, February 20, 2012

Personal Spring 2012 Severe Weather Forecasts

Galena, Illinois
Tornado Risk: 20%
Hail Risk: 65%
Damaging Wind Risk: 75%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 35%

Maple Park, Illinois
Tornado Risk: 20%
Hail Risk: 65%
Damaging Wind Risk: 70%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 35%

Hamilton, Ontario
Tornado Risk: 10%
Hail Risk: 45%
Damaging Wind Risk: 65%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 25%

Belvidere, Illinois
Tornado Risk: 20%
Hail Risk: 65%
Damaging Wind Risk: 75%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 35%

Des Moines, Iowa
Tornado Risk: 30%
Hail Risk: 70%
Damaging Wind Risk: 75%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 40%

Milan, Tennessee
Tornado Risk: 40%
Hail Risk: 80%
Damaging Wind Risk: 80%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: Up to 50%

Linden, Virginia
Tornado Risk: 15%
Hail Risk: 55%
Damaging Wind Risk: 70%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 30%

Shady Spring, West Virginia
Tornado Risk: 15%
Hail Risk: 60%
Damaging Wind Risk: 70%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 30%

Holmesville, Ohio
Tornado Risk: 35%
Hail Risk: 70%
Damaging Wind Risk: 75%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 35%

Wappingers Falls, New York
Tornado Risk: 25%
Hail Risk: 65%
Damaging Wind Risk: 70%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: Up to 30%

Cincinnati, Ohio
Tornado Risk: 30%
Hail Risk: 70%
Damaging Wind Risk: About 75%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: Up to 35%

Toledo, Ohio
Tornado Risk: 30%
Hail Risk: 70%
Damaging Wind Risk: 75%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: Up to 35%

Homer, Michigan
Tornado Risk: Up to 30%
Hail Risk: 70%
Damaging Wind Risk: Up to 80%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 30%

Valparaiso, Indiana
Tornado Risk: 30%
Hail Risk: 75%
Damaging Wind Risk: 75%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: Up to 35%

Senatobia, Mississippi
Tornado Risk: 50%
Hail Risk: 85%
Damaging Wind Risk: 90%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 50%

Grand Rapids, Michigan
Tornado Risk: 30%
Hail Risk: 75%
Damaging Wind Risk: 80%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 30%

Kansas City, Missouri
Tornado Risk: 40%
Hail Risk: 80%
Damaging Wind Risk: 80%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: Up to 40%

Atlanta, Georgia
Tornado Risk: 45%
Hail Risk: 85%
Damaging Wind Risk: Up to 90%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 45%

Detroit, Michigan
Tornado Risk: 35%
Hail Risk: 70%
Damaging Wind Risk: 70%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 35%

Fort Wayne, Indiana
Tornado Risk: Up to 40%
Hail Risk: 75%
Damaging Wind Risk: 80%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 40%

Antwerp, Ohio
Tornado Risk: 40%
Hail Risk: 75%
Damaging Wind Risk: 80%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 40%

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Tornado Risk: 35%
Hail Risk: 65%
Damaging Wind Risk: 65%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 30%

Sterling, Illinois
Tornado Risk: 40%
Hail Risk: Up to 75%
Damaging Wind Risk: 75%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 35%

Brighton, Michigan
Tornado Risk: 35%
Hail Risk: 70%
Damaging Wind Risk: 70%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 35%

Mt. Shasta, California*
Tornado Risk: 10%
Hail Risk: 55%
Damaging Wind Risk: 65%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 10%
*Mountain severe weather is much harder to predict, so take this with a grain of salt.

Manhattan, Kansas
Tornado Risk: 55%
Hail Risk: 90%
Damaging Wind Risk: 95%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: Up to 60%

Bethel, Connecticut
Tornado Risk: 25%
Hail Risk: 50%
Damaging Wind Risk: Up to 60%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 20%

These are all estimates based on historical severe weather and ENSO conditions.

12 comments:

Alice McDonald said...

Thank you Andrew.

Anonymous said...

Thanks from Mt Shasta!

Anonymous said...

where's mine?

Anonymous said...

Hi Andrew,
What is the risk for Maryville Tennessee?

Thanks,
Noelle

Anonymous said...

Ah this is awesome! Thanks much. I have two questions. First, I was wondering if you could make risk maps for the entire country for each thing you've plotted (damaging winds, hail) by using the towns as points and connecting towns with equal percentages. I know this is asking a lot, I am just wondering, as this would be just sweet. Also, I am wondering why sometimes you put the risk as just a plain percentage (60%) while other times you said "up to 60%". Please explain!

Anonymous said...

If I had a 20% chance of tornados, does that just mean that I have a 20% chance of seeing a tornado, or is it like in the general area. I mean, a 20% chance seems awfully high, especially with so many of them in close proximity (Belvidere and Maple Park)

Anonymous said...

Hey Andrew,

I saw that there was a post for the Severe Weather in Maryville TN. I know this is close in local but how are things looking for Seymour Tennessee? Thanks.

Andrew said...

Alice and Anonymous: You are both welcome.

Anonymous #2: Tell me your location and I will see if you entered it.

Anonymous #3:
Tornado Risk: 45%
Hail Risk: 70%
Damaging Wind Risk: 75%
Severe Weather Outbreak Risk: 40%

Anonymous #4: It would be a lot of work, but I will think about it. Thanks for the suggestion. The 'Up to 'x' percent' is defining how the chance is not exactly good enough to be at 'x' percent, but high enough to round above the nearest 10%.

Anonymous #5: I put this as 20% out of 100%, which in that aspect isn't particularly high in my opinion. It is for the general area you are in.

Anonymous #6: Seymour has the same percentage as the other Tennessee area.

Anonymous said...

Andrew, this blog is really very good. However, to truly become an elite weather blog, I truly do believe that you need to create partnerships with other blogs. You know, they write a few posts on here, and you put your knowledge on their blog. Both blogs usually sponsor each other. Usually, both parties benefit from this. I think that if you do this, it WILL put you at the top. No questions asked. Another thing you could do is completely merge both blogs together. I know that you do value that you are the sole publisher of this blog, but I think that what I am asking you to do would really benefit you.

LJ said...

Thanks Andrew. Hopefully you are feeling better.

jen from toledo said...

jen from toledo here....thanks so much for the estimates....its truly appreciated, and knowing this area's typical weather, it totally falls in line.

Anonymous said...

Andrew, What about Orland Park, ILlinois??? Thanks from Angela