Saturday, March 3, 2012

Forecast Comparison to the Result (March 2 Tornado Outbreak)

This is a comparison of my forecast to what the tornado outbreak resulted in.
Here was my forecast for tornadoes, issued yesterday morning.
My 'hotspot' for the day was central Kentucky and Tennessee.
Here are the severe weather reports from yesterday.
The tornado hotspot for yesterday was the Ohio/Indiana/Kentucky borders into the rest of KY and TN.
My personal rating for this would be a B.

Achievements of the forecast vs comparison:
-Many tornadoes were recorded in the two states being watched the closest.
-Most of the severe weather reports were in Tennessee, where I had my forecast most pointed towards.

Losses of the forecast vs comparison:
-Did not adequately cover the OH/KY and IN/KY border, where the models had still been showing high tornado potential levels.
-More tornadoes slightly south of the main monitoring forecast area.


1 comment:

ERN WX said...

Andrew, you did a very good job handling the outbreak. You got the message out. The ECMWF has been consistent with pouring cold air into the CONUS. The GFS, well, no real cold air. I think you will agree it is wonderful the model consistency. I saw that some areas In the North-central states got some detcent snow. Did you get any? I hope you did. You have done an excellent job running this site. I really appreciate the time and effort you put into it. Keep up the great work!!!!!!!!