Midwest Outlined in 4-8 Day Severe Weather Outlook
A 4-8 day outlook has been issued for severe weather, indicating that the area shaded has at least a 30% chance of experiencing severe weather within 25 miles of any point. This is valid for May 2. My area is included in this, so expect a low of posts concerning it, adding to the fact that it is the first big event in a little while.
Let's take a look at a few maps for the event. Here is the instability forecast for May 2. All maps are valid at 7:00 PM CDT May 2nd.
Here is the instability forecast. You can see very large amounts of instability located mainly in western Oklahoma, but also back towards the area outlined in the Midwest and eastern Plains. You can see where the warm front cuts off by seeing where the instability ends in southern Wisconsin. However, that may be where the highest tornado potential is, as frontal boundaries are known to have tornado-enhancing characteristics with them.
Here is the shearing forecast for 7:00 PM CDT. The highest shearing looks to be in Wisconsin, indicating that those areas would have better tornado potential. However, considering that the instability is located farther south, they do not exactly match up. We will have to see what evolves with this situation.
Finally, the precipitation forecast for 7:00 PM CDT indicates that a mesoscale convective system (MCS) of showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across southern Wisconsin. Some single celled storms could evolve to the south of this MCS, but that remains to be seen.