Friday, May 4, 2012

Tropical Outlook- May 4, 2012

This is the tropical outlook from today, May 4, until May 11, 2012.

Looking over ECMWF, ECMWF Ensemble MSLP forecasts yield nothing of major concern. However, looking over the GFS brings up a low pressure system that appears to be stationary over the far southern Gulf of Mexico region. Intensity of this system appears to be low, but nonetheless a stationary system can warrant watching, as we are approaching the start of hurricane season. That said, I have delineated a 'Low' risk area for tropical development over the next week. Because forecasts beyond 4 days are somewhat untrustworthy, this Low risk is on the bottom end of the spectrum.


1 comment:

ERN WX said...

Would be neat to have one develop. Okay, now for what appears to be just any other boring day. T-storms developed in eastern PA, but it seems do to a lack of shear, they have not held up very well and very long. Maybe next time.....