Friday, May 25, 2012

Tropical Storm Beryl May Form Today Off the Southeast

There is a high probability (70%) that Invest 94 may very well become Tropical Storm Beryl in the next 48 hours, per the National Hurricane Center. Defined showers and thunderstorms are evident in satellite imagery, yet a lacking well-defined circulation area keeps this system an invest.
Tracks for this system are pretty hard to see, but the majority of them do appear to make landfall in the Southwest. Because of this disorganized chaos, I am hesitant to call for a landfalling system. However, I can see enough colors in the picture so that it does appear likely that invest 94 will make landfall in the Southeast.
The models are not agreeing with the NHC idea that Invest 94 will become Beryl anytime soon. In the next 2 days, many models actually drop off in strength, which may be due to their ideas of landfall. The more interesting proposal for strengthening does occur around 5 days out, with the majority of models moving towards Tropical Storm strength at that point in time.



Mike Paulocsak said...

Hi Andrew and everyone else! I think we are going to be way more acive in the Atlantic compared to last hurricane season!It's going to be interesting!We have quite a time to go yet!

Lucas Reynolds said...

Hi, Mike. How are you doing? I agree with you. It already getting active. Like you said there is quite a time to go yet. Everyone stay safe and have a good day.

ERN WX said...

Hello, Mike and LJ. I think the tropics will try to get in all they can before El Nino shuts them down. If it weren't for Nino it would be quite the year. It is just unbelievably active rigth now!!!! Take care everyone!!!! MAybe we'll end up abv avg if we get thru quickly!!! If El Nino doesn't hurry, this is likely a big year.

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello,LJ,and ERN WX!I have been doing great.And how have you been doing?No severe weather last evening,just rain and thunder & lightning.Not severe enough to meet severe criteria though.Take care!!!!!

Mike Paulocsak said...

Hello Andrew! What are your thoughts on the outlook for June-July in the precip.& temp.department?Cleveland and Pittsburgh are all over the map on this.Just a wild guess would do.Thanks!!!!!!Side note:Some are saying a hot & dry summer.