Saturday, June 30, 2012

Long Range Analysis: ECMWF - GFS


GFS and ECMWF in good agreement over high pressure remaining in place over much of the United States in the next 8-10 days, providing unrelenting heat to flourish across the country. Models also agree in extension of ridge north into western Canada, where it will act to hold a deep low pressure system in place over the Gulf of Alaska, and an atmospheric traffic jam looks to be forming.
Both models also indicate the presence of a low pressure system in southeast Canada. However, the ECWMF does give this disturbance more strength and has the ridge in western Canada weaker than the GFS. Essentially, the ECMWF appears more inclined to break down the traffic jam. If this break down would occur, the low pressure system would likely be shoved down south into the eastern US. The ridge in the US would be pushed east, and the ridge in Canada would get moving and allow the Gulf of Alaska's low pressure system to skirt along the US/Canada border and likely ignite some severe weather in the Northern Plains along the still-existing Ring of Fire. However, it is suggested that the central and eastern US would be free of the heat due to a shifting MJO into Phase 2. The ECMWF ensemble system has the MJO stay in Phase 2 at fluctuating strengths, which all-in-all would lead to a cooler eastern US.


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