Friday, June 8, 2012

Updated 2012-2013 Winter Forecast Release Date

The release date for my update to the 2012-2013 winter forecast will be on Friday, June 15, at 12:00 PM CDT.
Rather than a small update, I have collected enough information to form an entirely new forecast, or at least compilation of indices and other valuable data.


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hello, Andrew. This is something helpful with forecasting that I want to put. A lot of people criticize the models for doing crazy things, superstorms that don't exist, and really botching forecasts. Now one thing we should all look at first. We can't beat the wx. The best we can do is a tie. With forecasting meteorologists use computer models as a guide to forecasting. However, a forecaster also uses his general knowledge; and follows consistency with indices. If the Euro and GFS show a super Noreaster and the NAO is + then it is clearly bogus and only 20-30% pops should be used. Now one thing we should remember is imperfect humans created the models and imperfect humans create the forecasts. I am sure no person expects a perfect forecast, but we can and should get close. Long range forecasting can be done, but it is very difficult. Now, I am not going after any person; I am just saying yes the models have faults but should still be used with forecasting. Remember this for forecasting everyone interested with meteorology: forecasters use models, experience, indices. Thank you. I look forward to the winter otlk./ I hope I don't offend anyone but I help people. I want to help; not harm./ ANd also, I do not worship the models. I mock them EVERY day./