Monday, July 30, 2012

Invest 99 Forms; Development in Caribbean Possible

Invest 99 has formed off of Africa with little evidence of circulation but an abundance of showers and storms.

Satellite imagery indicates that Invest 99 is composed of several clusters of showers and thunderstorms, with what could be a weak center of circulation in the middle of the image shown above. However, no significant circulation is evident, nor any enhanced convection around the weak circulation. Thus, the invest appears weak at this time.

However, the GFS Ensembles (GEFS) are forecasting this invest to trend westward and into the Caribbean, shown as the circles in the above image. This image shows 1008 and 1048 isobar markings, meaning that this invest could stay in fairly weak territory. Despite this, I find that the Caribbean may be supportive enough for development should the MJO race around to Phases 8-2 in the next 5 or 7 days in order to make a 'perfect storm' of development potential. Whether that happens remains to be seen.


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