Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Long Range Indication of Hot High Pressure System Settling In

The NCEP Ensembles are returning the monster high pressure system to the eastern US after a disturbance will sit in place over the next week or two.

The ensembles are projecting a low pressure system to dip south and sit there for a few days, before the high pressure system once again shifts east and reclaims the eastern US, bringing with it hot temperatures. If this were to happen, we could be looking at an extended period of unusually hot temperatures, possibly continuing into the rest of July.
Now, these ensembles are long range, and there is a lot of potential wiggle room involved here. However, this is what I find to be historic/unusual. Historic and/or unusual events are typically placed fairly few and far between. These events take special forces to somehow expel it from the region. This is a historic/unusual event, in the case that it has broken numerous daily high temperature records and is able to hold its ground. That said, I find the NCEP ensemble's case very believable. It will certainly have to be monitored.



Alice McDonald said...

What type of forces would you expect before the heat disperses? Side note too: I had never heard the word derecho before your posts last week, but I will pay attention if you talk about it again. Thank you for that seriously. I just found a huge tree in the woods behind my house. It fell perfectly back into the woods instead of into my fence and pool. So many streets still blocked with trees in this town. I've been driving 4.5 miles extra each way to and from work. Still about 50,000 without power here, now they say hopefully restored by the weekend.

Andrew said...

You are very welcome, and thank you for the reports. As for the heat, it will probably take something up in Canada to dislodge and move east to get something going. It's looking like that could happen in the long range, but the better chance is for the heat to continue. Outside of that potential, I can't say i'm sure what it would take to burst a country-wide high pressure area.