Wednesday, July 11, 2012

PDO Spike May Be On The Horizon

Data from the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) indicates that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation may be trying to head for a turn around. Values from January to April of the PDO (pictured above) have been steadily increasing until April, when a major jump occurred towards the positive PDO phase.
Sea surface temperatures indicate a warm body of water is entrenched in the north central Pacific Ocean, with an opposing cool body of water just to the east of the warm anomalies. Both bodies of water appear to be fighting for their spot in the ocean.

A traditional positive phase PDO has cool temperature anomalies in the northern Pacific, with warm anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. This would make for a correlation between a positive PDO and El Nino, as well as a negative PDO and La Nina.
If an El Nino is forming, it is definitely conceivable that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation will try and make a move to a positive phase, which would enhance winter precipitation.

Seeing as there is a large warm body of water in the North Pacific tells me there remains a lot of work to be done, but there are some signs that a positive PDO may be trying to get going.


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