DAY 7 (July 25, 2012)
The latest 0z GFS and 0z ECMWF model runs for 7:00 PM on July 25 are in unusually good agreement, as seen in these below pictures of 500mb heights.
|ECMWF Hour 168|
|GFS Hour 168|
|Instability for the evening of July 25|
|Shearing values for July 25|
There is a lot of instability available over the Upper Midwest and Midwest, which could easily provide a lot of action for both regions. However, in order to get any storms going, and keep them going, we're going to need shearing. Surface to 500mb shearing shown in the second image highlight the atmosphere's willingness to provide such storm energy to the Upper Midwest, while not really supporting the Midwest itself. However, given the high instability and deeply negative Lifted Index values (not shown), I can see at least scattered pulse cells originating over the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes.
DAY 8 (July 26, 2012)
We already know that the GFS and ECMWF remain in very good agreement into Day 8, so let's go right into instability and shearing once again.
|Instability for the evening of July 26|
|Shearing for the evening of July 26|