Saturday, August 18, 2012

GFS Landfalls Hurricane on East Coast In Late August

Screenshotted from Americanwx Models
The latest 12z GFS model has produced a scary scenario in extremely late August/Early September, where a hurricane with pressure as low as 980mb landfalls on the East Coast. The worry comes as the GFS is unusually skilled in forecasting tropical cyclones.


The GFS is projecting Invest 94, shown above currently stationed offshore Africa, to move west and quickly develop into a deep tropical system. As you can see, right now Invest 94 is not too organized. Despite the lack of major convection, I am seeing some startling signs of circulation, with a very defined banding pattern evident across the invest's cloud extent. This is very worrying to me, and only a few sustained bursts of convection would be needed to get the invest into a serious player.

The current tropical cyclone formation probability suggests a pretty elevated chance of a tropical system to form in the presence of Invest 94, which is roughly near the 30 W and 15 N lines. If we look back to the satellite imagery, one can also see where it may go in the future.  The 10 N line can be used as a reference point to help determine tropical cyclone tracks. For example, systems to the north of 10 N typically have a better chance of recurving north and out to sea, while systems below the 10 N line typically have a better chance to move west and impact the Caribbean.

However, the past track of Invest 94 displays the clear west-northwest motion of Invest 94. If the system is to pose a threat to the East Coast, a nearly perfect westward path would need to be established, and development would have to be delayed. As we saw with Ernesto, a lack of strength with the system can have the system keep at a westward path, with motions to the south possibly tainted in there as well.

Because the GFS is so long range with it, I question the validity, as I do with all long range forecasts. However, a strangely well-defined circulation and fair west-northwest movement tells me that the East Coast is indeed in a possible path of this system.



David said...

Andrew Gorden is a cat. 2 hurricane with gusts up to 125 mph. Now thats impressive for a storm that far up north.

David said...

Andrew there is also a good site wich has forcast modles on it like the gfs its called weather forcast modle animator and the link is

Go try it out :)

ERN WX said...

I have been expecting this for a week now. The GFS soln is logical. I want this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LOTS OF RAIN. FLASH FLOODING. Andrew, I am rooting for this soln!!!